Revisions note: UK defence and security export statistics for 2021
Updated 6 February 2023
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Two errors have been identified in the official defence and security export statistics for 2021 for the years 2020 and 2021. This revision note advises users of these errors, the revisions which have been made to address them, and the implications of these revisions for the data.
These revisions were made and the relevant documents updated on 30 January 2023.
If you have any questions or comments on these changes, please send them to: [email protected].
Summary
On 8 December 2022 Department for International Trade (DIT) published the official defence and security export statistics for 2021. UK Defence and Security (UKDSE) have since identified a large error in the underlying data used to calculate the 2021 figures and have revised the figures and charts accordingly. This correction was made to ensure the 2021 UK defence exports figure is as accurate as possible.
At a high-level, the amendment shows a £1.14 billion increase in UK defence exports for 2021, with the UK moving from ranking fifth to fourth in-year. However, this does not have an impact on rankings of the 10-year rolling average, where the UK remains second.
A small error was also identified in the underlying data used to calculate the 2020 statistics, due to originally double counting a small subset of exports which were reported by multiple survey returns.
This amendment is to correct an information management error when processing data provided by UK companies via UKDSE’s survey of defence export contracts. The change reflects the addition of a number of defence exports, all added through one survey return. The issue is now resolved and does not affect the quality or accuracy of the data presented in this publication. UKDSE will conduct a lessons learnt exercise and implement findings to improve the resiliency of the statistics process for future years. Additional quality assurance processes have also been put in place.
Revised figures and charts
Chart 1: Defence exports: Estimated UK and competitor percentage market shares (2012 to 2021)
Chart 1 highlights UK and competitor estimated defence export market-shares for the past decade. This provides a good barometer of the competitiveness of the leading exporters in the global market.
| UK | USA | Russia | France | Germany | Italy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 6 | 32 | 12 | 30 | 7 | 2 |
| Revised 2021 | 7 | 32 | 12 | 28 | 7 | 3 |
There is a change in UK market share, increasing to 7% and France reducing to 28%. This does not change the overall standings for in-year exports and therefore does not impact the narrative around this chart.
Chart 2: Annual value of UK defence exports 2012 to 2021 (£ billion)
Chart 2 shows annual totals (in actual prices) for UK defence exports, with the variable cyclical nature clearly visible. Total defence exports decreased from £7.9 billion to £7.5 billion in 2020 and increased from £5.5 billion to £6.64 billion in 2021.
| Year | £bn |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 7.9 |
| Revised 2020 | 7.5 |
| 2021 | 5.5 |
| Revised 2021 | 6.64 |
While the 2021 figure is a large increase it does not affect the narrative in this instance as the trends across a 10-year period remain consistent.
Chart 3: Estimated global defence exports (based on orders/contracts signed): World market $ billion at actual prices
Chart 3 shows the value of global defence exports annually over the last 10 years.
| Year | ROW $bn | UK $bn |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 164 | 10 |
| Revised 2020 | 164 | 10 |
| 2021 | 119 | 8 |
| Revised 2021 | 119 | 9 |
The only changes to these figures are in 2021, with the UK increasing to $9 billion. While the change did not affect the overall UK figure, when combined to show a total global market the change resulted in a decrease from $174 billion to $173 billion due to rounding calculations.
Chart 4: Estimated top 10 defence exporters (based on orders/contracts signed): 2012 to 2021 ($ billion)
Chart 4 shows that for the most recent 10-year period (2012 to 2021 inclusive), the UK is the second largest defence exporter globally, behind the USA.
| 2012-2021 $bn | |
|---|---|
| UK | 125 |
| Revised UK | 126 |
Due to rounding, the changes to 2020 underlying data do not impact the overall UK figure in this chart, nor change the narrative. The UK in 2021 is the only figure impacted, increasing to $126 billion.
Chart 5: Estimated value of defence imports by region 2012 to 2021, including the split between UK and rest of the world exports to each region ($ billion)
Chart 5 shows regional importers of defence equipment and services.
| Area | 2021 | Revised 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 64 | 64 |
| Asia Pacific | 9 | 9 |
| Europe | 16 | 17 |
| North America | 19 | 20 |
| Africa | 1 | 1 |
| Latin America | 1 | 1 |
Due to the size of change, the difference in 2020 underlying data does not impact the values in this chart, nor change the narrative. The regions impacted are Europe, increasing to $17 billion, and North America, increasing to $20 billion.
Chart 7: Estimated total UK defence exports (based on orders/contracts signed) by region 2012 to 2021
Chart 7 shows UK defence exports by region based on total 2012 to 2021 figures.
| Area | 2021 % Share | Revised % Share |
|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 57 | 51 |
| North America | 18 | 16 |
| Europe | 15 | 13 |
| Asia Pacific | 8 | 7 |
| Africa | 1 | 1 |
| Latin America | 1 | 1 |
Due to the size of change, the difference in 2020 underlying data does not impact the percentage shares in this chart, nor change the narrative. The Middle East share has decreased to 51%, North America has decreased to 16%, Europe to 13% and Asia Pacific to 7%. This is due to an increase in the share of exports to an unidentified region. This does not change the narrative as the split between markets has remained largely the same.
Chart 8: Estimated percentage share of UK defence exports by region for the periods 2020 and 2021
Chart 8 shows percentage share comparison of UK defence exports by region for 2020 and 2021.
| Area | 2020 | Revised 2020 | 2021 | Revised 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia Pacific | 8 | 8 | 11 | 12 |
| Europe | 43 | 45 | 18 | 21 |
| Latin America | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Middle East | 19 | 14 | 32 | 28 |
| North America | 30 | 32 | 31 | 30 |
Changes to the 2020 data have seen small changes in percentage shares by region for 2020. However, the split between regions remains largely the same so the overall narrative is not impacted. Asia Pacific’s share of UK exports has reduced by 1%, Europe’s has increased to 21%, Middle East has reduced to 28%, and North America to 31%.
Chart 9: UK and global defence export market (based on orders/contracts signed) by sector 2012 to 2021
Chart 9 depicts Global and UK defence export performance by sector across the 2012 to 2021 period based on orders/contracts signed. Where exports do not clearly fit within a specific sector they have been included as ‘Other’.
| Sector | UK % | Global % | Revised UK % | Revised Global % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerospace | 73 | 58 | 72 | 56 |
| Land | 4 | 18 | 4 | 20 |
| Sea | 4 | 12 | 4 | 13 |
| Other | 19 | 12 | 20 | 11 |
The changes to 2020 data are not significant in these figures. Amendments to the 2021 underlying data have resulted in UK and global aerospace percentage share decreasing, with land and sea both increasing. As aerospace remains the dominant share for both UK and global views, the narrative is not affected.
Chart 10: UK and global defence export market (based on orders/contracts signed) by sector 2021
Where exports do not clearly fit within a specific sector they have been included as ‘Other’.
| Sector | UK % | Global % | Revised UK % | Revised Global % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerospace | 54 | 55 | 46 | 55 |
| Land | 8 | 14 | 6 | 14 |
| Sea | 12 | 16 | 10 | 16 |
| Other | 27 | 16 | 37 | 15 |
The share of UK exports without a clear sector increased, decreasing the percentage share of aerospace, land and sea exports.
Changes to 2020 underlying data are not affected here, however a methodological change will mean comparison between years may not be like for like. In 2021 we have included the ‘other’ category to better encapsulate the percentage split between all sectors, rather than comparing just exports with a known sector. This not only allows us to identify the percentage contribution of each sector more clearly, but also allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of current sector definitions.