Official Statistics

United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024: Theme 2: UK Food Supply Sources

Published 11 December 2024

Part of the United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024

Presented to Parliament pursuant to Section 19 of the Agriculture Act 2020

© Crown copyright 2024

ISBN 978-1-5286-5232-2

Introduction

Theme definition

Having covered the global system in Theme 1 the focus now shifts in Theme 2 to the UK food system itself. This theme covers where the UK gets its food from across domestic production, imports and the sustainability of those sources.

In Theme 2, food security means a diversity of supply sources avoiding single points of failure, and a high degree of sustainability within those sources. Maintaining a balance of strong and consistent domestic production of food and strong trading relations supports this security. This theme focuses on the food availability and sustainability dimensions of food security, while commenting on impacts on other dimensions like accessibility and stability.

Theme 2 tracks the sources of UK food taken as a whole and then tracks sources by different groups (arable crops, fruit and vegetables, livestock produce, and seafood) (Sub-theme 1). The theme then looks at the state of domestic production by measuring its productivity and sustainability (Sub-theme 2). Productivity and sustainability on the international level were covered in Theme 1. This edition includes new indicators looking at agricultural productivity, animal and plant health, and a wider range of measures of natural capital.

All food production in the UK should be viewed not only in the context of global food security but in the context of the environment it sits within. Food production is reliant on the natural environment, good quality soil and water, and available pollinators. Agricultural and climatic changes have been driving shifts in the natural environment. These shifts can build up over time to have a significant impact on UK food security by degrading essential ecosystem services and thereby undermining fertility and yield. The UKFSR measures both this slow onset change alongside rapid shocks to production such as weather volatility and price shocks.

Overall findings

• The UK’s overall balance of trade and domestic production remains broadly stable. The UK continues to source food from domestic production and trade at around an overall 60:40 ratio.  

  Key statistic: The production-to-supply ratio was at 62% for all food and 75% for indigenous foods (meaning those that can be grown in the UK) in 2023, showing a small increase from 61% and 74% in 2021. This is a continuation of the broadly stable trend seen in recent years (see Indicator 2.1.1 Overall sources of UK food).

• Extreme weather events continue to have a significant effect on domestic production, particularly arable crops, fruits and vegetables. Production levels fluctuate each year due to changes in both planted areas and yields, with weather conditions having a significant influence among other factors. Supply has also been affected by geopolitical volatility. As arable commodities are internationally traded, the disruption to the supply of oilseeds and cereals resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused prices to rise rapidly in spring 2022.

  Key statistic: In 2019 UK cereal production (25.5mt) was the highest this century, whereas in 2020 production (19.0mt) was the second lowest largely due to bad weather. The published first estimate of the 2024 English cereal and oilseed harvest shows a 22% decrease (around 2.8mt) in harvested wheat from 2023 (see Indicator 2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseed and potatoes)).

• The UK continues to be highly dependent on imports to meet consumer demand for fruits, vegetables and seafood, which are significant sources of micronutrients for consumers. Many of the countries the UK imports these foods from are subject to their own climate-related challenges and sustainability risks. Further research is required to understand the impact of climate change on the global production of fruits and vegetables.

  Key statistic: domestic production of fresh fruit increased slightly from 15% of total UK supply in 2021 to 16% in 2023. While this is a continuation of the long-term upward trend from 8% in 2003 it shows ongoing consumer demand for non-indigenous produce (see Indicator 2.1.4 Fruits and vegetables).

• While there has been a small reduction over the long term, the UK is broadly maintaining its level of agricultural land area (UAA). Greater fluctuation happens in terms of uses within UAA, although that is also quite stable. The major use of agricultural land continues to be land for animal feed.

  Key statistic: Between 2021 and 2023 UAA decreased by 1.2%, this is consistent with a longer-term gradual decrease (see Indicator 2.2.4 Land use).

• A small reduction in the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of agriculture between 2021 and 2023 contrasts to a longer trend of slow but positive productivity growth since 1985. The reduction since 2021 was caused by decreases in the total outputs of both crops and livestock, and rising input costs, which peaked in 2022.

  Key statistic: TFP has increased by 9.1% overall over the last decade but is estimated to have decreased by 1.2% between 2021 and 2023 (see Indicator 2.2.3 Agricultural productivity).

• There has been a long-term decline in key indicators of natural capital and ecosystem services on farmland due in large part to farmland management practices. The decline, however, is slowing.

  Key statistic: The all-species indicator in England shows a decline in abundance to just under 70% of the 1970 value. This trend levels around the year 2000 and over the past 5 years, fluctuations in the all-species indicator are not considered to represent meaningful change (see Indicator 2.2.5 Biodiversity).

• New government subsidy schemes designed to support sustainable farming and renew nature are underway, but it is too early to assess the impacts.

  Key statistic: Across the UK, the area of land in agri-environmental schemes increased from 4,922 thousand hectares in 2021 to 5,872 thousand hectares in 2023 (see Indicator 2.2.9 Sustainable farming).

• Food waste continues to represent a significant economic and environmental loss in the UK food system. The majority of food waste is generated by UK households.

  Key statistic: Total food waste per capita in the UK amounted to around 115.7kg in 2021, representing a 5.6% increase compared to 2018, but a reduction of 18.3% compared to 2007 (see Indicator 2.2.2 Food waste).

Cross-theme links

The continued increase in production and levels of food traded internationally, covered in Theme 1, supports the security of UK imports in the immediate term. However, risks on the global level such as reduced productivity growth pose challenges over the longer term.

Price shocks to inputs covered in Theme 3 Food Supply Chain Resilience have driven an increase in agricultural production costs and food prices. The UK agri-food sector has needed to adapt to both a new business environment of high costs and changing subsidies and regulations after leaving the EU. Theme 3 looks at changing farmer incomes and confidence in this context, both of which have a bearing on farmers’ choices of types of farming and food production, including sustainable practices covered in this theme.

Consumers continue to demand both domestically produced and imported food, supporting stable supply trends. Theme 4 Food Security at Household Level shows that there has been a return to pre-pandemic proportions of expenditure going on food and drink, although not a return to same levels of expenditure. Theme 5 Food Safety and Consumer Confidence shows that consumer confidence in food has remained broadly stable. Similarly, the market and consumer preference continue to drive purchasing of non-indigenous fruits and vegetables, which contributes to the relatively high reliance on fruit and vegetable imports.

Sub-theme 1: Food sources

2.1.1 Overall sources of UK food

Rationale

To ensure a consistent supply of food, the UK relies upon a combination of strong domestic production from the UK’s agricultural and food manufacturing sectors, and a diverse range of overseas supply sources.

The production to supply ratio is generally understood to be a broad measure of national self-sufficiency. It is used in the UKFSR to show the relative contribution of UK domestic production and trade to UK supply. The ratio is calculated as the farmgate value of raw food production divided by the value of raw food for human consumption. It compares the value of what is produced in the UK with what is consumed. This indicator breaks down the overall ratio to show the balance of production and trade for some key commodities and food groups.

Importantly, the production to supply ratio is not a single measure of food security. A low or high ratio does not directly correlate to low or high national food security and the amounts and types of food produced are driven by market forces and consumer demands for goods. For instance, current UK consumer preference and diets include a range of non-indigenous products that cannot be produced domestically. Nevertheless, it is a starting point for conversations about UK food sources and the factors that contribute, both positively and negatively, to national food security.

The production to supply ratio is also considered in greater detail later in this theme within Indicator 2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseed and potatoes), Indicator 2.1.3 Livestock and poultry, and Indicator 2.1.4 Fruits and vegetables.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.1.1a: UK food production to supply ratio, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

Download the data for this chart (ODS, 79.7 KB)

The production to supply ratio data for 2023 shows a broadly stable trend. Production was at 62% for all food and 75% for indigenous foods in 2023, compared to 61% and 74% in 2021. In 2023 the UK relied on imports for roughly 40% of its food (unchanged from 2021).

Indigenous foods are those that are commercially produced in the UK. These are products that suit the climate and conditions of the UK. Viewing the indigenous production to supply ratio alongside the ratio for all foods is important as it strips away the food that cannot be grown commercially in the UK. This includes citrus fruits, bananas and other products that rely on a tropical climate.

Note that the production to supply ratio does not include crops produced for animal feed so does not capture full UK productive capacity. It also does not include some meat imports (see Indicator 2.1.3 Livestock and poultry products (meat, eggs and dairy) for further details).

The production to supply ratio reflects what is available in the UK rather than production to supply of the recommended diet. For example, it does not factor in that the average adult consumes more calories than they need (PHE), nor does it factor in the amount of food wasted. To complete the picture from a food security perspective, it is therefore important to consider this indicator alongside Theme 4 Food Security at Household Level to understand how the food available is being accessed and utilised.

A secure food supply provides enough nutrients as well as calories. To understand the nutritional component of supply, analysis is needed on what aspects of diet current supply is providing. Both research and consumer trends for the different food groups suggest the UK has high import dependency for its supply of micronutrients (like vitamins and minerals) from goods such as fruits and vegetables and fish, compared to its supply of macronutrients (like carbohydrates and proteins), and this dependency has increased over the last 50 years.

Supporting evidence

Variation across the production to supply ratio

The UK produces most of the cereals, meat, dairy and eggs that it consumes (see Figure 2.1.1b). This figure is lower for vegetables (53% in 2023) and fruits (16% in 2023) due to UK climate suitability, seasonality and consumer and producer choices. Production to supply ratio data is not available for seafood. (Information on seafood can be found in Indicator 2.1.5 Seafood).

Figure 2.1.1b: UK production to supply ratio by food type, 2021 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra), Horticultural statistics (Defra)

Food type	2021	2022	2023
All cereals	86%	92%	93%
Wheat	89%	95%	96%
Barley	110%	112%	113%
Oats	101%	121%	120%
Fresh vegetables	57%	54%	53%
Fresh fruits	15%	17%	16%
Beef	83%	87%	85%
Pork	71%	69%	64%
Lamb	108%	107%	114%
Poultry	93%	84%	82%
Milk	105%	105%	105%
Eggs	92%	90%	87%

Domestic production

Domestically produced food is not without its risks. Many factors affect the output of domestic production, including:

• climate and environmental factors such as soil health and rainfall

• the availability and suitability of land for particular forms of production

• inputs such as labour, water, fertiliser, pesticides and seeds

Weather conditions in recent years have been some of the most extreme on record and have affected domestic production. Following the driest UK summer since 1995 in 2022 (Kendon and others, 2023) England had its wettest 18 month period on record between October 2022 to March 2024. For several of the months between October 2023 and March 2024, parts of the UK had monthly rainfall totals that were double the 1991 to 2020 monthly averages (Met Office, 2024) resulting in the submersion of fields affecting livestock and reduced winter cropping for the 2024 harvest. Publication of the first estimate of the 2024 English cereal and oilseed harvest shows a decrease in overall cereal production in comparison to 2023, driven by the smallest wheat harvest since 2020. Overall yields were also down on the 5-year average. See Indicator 2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseed and potatoes) for more details. UK harvest data for 2024 will be published in December 2024.

Strong domestic production is dependent on sustainability of the whole food system, particularly healthy biodiversity, soil and water, which are explored later in this theme. Overproduction can lead to inefficient use of resource which in turn has a negative effect on natural capital by placing unnecessary pressures on the environment. Intensification of farming contributes to soil degradation, and food waste contributes to unnecessary greenhouse gas emission. This is covered in more detail later in this theme.

Domestically produced food may be less directly affected by international variables than imports. Such variables include international conflicts, extreme weather events outside of the UK, and export bans. However, the last 3 years have demonstrated that a stable production to supply ratio does not translate to stability of access. Domestic food production is not independent of global supply chains since production can be reliant on global inputs at the farming (for example, fertiliser) and the processing stages (for example, packaging and critical dependencies like CO₂). Theme 3 Indicator 3.1.1 Agricultural inputs, Indicator 3.1.2 Supply chain inputs, Indicator 3.1.3 Labour and skills, and Indicator 3.1.5 Energy explores the effect that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had on the price of inputs and the supply of some cereals and oilseeds. Furthermore, the increased cost of inputs led to food becoming more expensive and less accessible as a result. Theme 4 Indicator 4.1.3 Price changes of main food groups, covers the effect that supply-side shocks had on food prices.

Despite the challenges posed by extreme weather events, geopolitics and a long-term decline in natural capital, domestic production has been able to keep up with population growth. In 2022 the UK produced £570 per capita, this is an increase from £502 in 2011.

Diversity of sources

Trade supports UK food supply resilience. This is due to the UK having diverse trade routes, strong international supply and purchasing power. Being a part of a global food system enables the UK to spread risk. As Theme 1 Global Food Availability explains in more detail, the global trading system remains a stable and reliable avenue for UK food security but faces challenges in both the short and longer term. Imports may be subject to shocks and disruptions and so overreliance on one geographical area makes food supply more vulnerable, while diversity of sources makes it more resilient. The diversity of UK sources can be assessed by looking at the ‘origins of consumption’. While the production to supply ratio is calculated using farmgate value of raw materials and includes both imports and exports, ‘origins of consumption’ excludes exports from the calculation, so provides a slightly different view on where the UK gets its food from (see Figure 2.1.1c).

Figure 2.1.1c: Origins of food consumed in the UK, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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Domestic production provides the main source of food and drink in the UK. Proportionally, the UK consumed more domestically produced food by value in 2023 (58%) compared to 2020 (54%). Indicator 2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseed and potatoes), Indicator 2.1.3 Livestock and poultry, Indicator 2.1.4 Fruits and vegetables, and Indicator 2.1.5 Seafood explore at a commodity level whether this increase is a result of a rise in domestic production or a decrease in imports.

The EU continues to be the main source of food and drink imports and is therefore essential to the UK’s food security. However, data on the sources of UK food and drink imports shows that the proportion supplied from the EU decreased from 28.4% in 2018 to 22.5% in 2021 following the UK’s departure from the EU Customs Union on 1 January 2021. The proportion sourced from the EU partially recovered to 24.2% in 2023. The fall in imports from the EU has largely been replaced by an increase in domestically produced food and drink. Full EU import checks are yet to be implemented in the UK. Theme 3 Indicator 3.2.3 Import flows explores border changes since the UK left the EU. Note that some of the reduction in recorded EU imports since January 2021 might be due to changes in the methodology for data collection by HMRC as a result of leaving the EU. The retention of a reduced Intrastat survey and staged customs controls in 2021 and changes to Customs Declarations in 2022 where some food is recorded as being sourced from, mean that comparisons pre-and post-2021 need to be made with care.

In 2023 the 10 largest exporting countries to the UK provided 69% of all food and drink imports by value (65% by volume). While this was an increase from 2021 (64% by value and 62% by volume) it shows a continued diversity of supply. However, the UK depends on certain countries and regions for specific key products which creates a risk should supply be disrupted by trading barriers, geopolitics or extreme weather. For instance, 3 of the UK’s largest suppliers of fresh fruit, Brazil, South Africa and Colombia, are all classified as low-medium climate readiness countries. For each of these countries agricultural capacity has been highlighted as a particular vulnerability. Further research is needed to understand the effect that climate change will have on horticulture in each of these countries. Rice, fruits, vegetables and fish are all important components of the UK consumer diet and each face climate related changes (see relevant indicators for further details).

In recent years the UK has demonstrated resilience to global shocks such as extreme weather and geopolitical stress. The UK’s economic strength and purchasing power provides resilience by enabling the UK to utilise different trading partners. For instance, unusually hot climatic conditions in Morocco led to lower levels of tomato production and retailers setting limits on consumer purchasing of tomatoes at the start of 2023. The UK was able to ease pressure on supply by increasing imports from other major trading partners like Spain and the Netherlands. In addition, despite several economic shocks the Pound Sterling exchange rate has been stable since mid to late 2016 (using a constructed ‘effective exchange rate’ which weights a basket of foreign currencies in accordance with their influence on the UK’s food import mix). A weak exchange rate would mean that imports become more expensive. Recent stability is particularly positive for household food security as importers are likely to pass some of the costs of a weak exchange rate to consumers.

Nevertheless, while the availability of food has remained stable, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had a significant effect on input costs which consequently led to a sharp increase in food prices. This is explored further in Theme 3 Food Supply Chain Resilience and Theme 4 Food Security at Household Level.

2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseeds and potatoes)

Rationale

This indicator tracks our supply of arable commodities from both production and trade. Grain, including wheat, barley and oats, are staple crops in the UK with wheat representing 31% of daily energy intake for the UK population between 2008 and 2012. In addition, cereals contribute significantly to the daily intake of protein, B vitamins and iron. The UK gets a significant amount of its micronutrients from fortified cereals (breakfast cereals and bread). UK government dietary recommendations are illustrated by The Eatwell Guide. It recommends that higher fibre and wholegrain starchy foods, such as wholegrain pasta and brown rice, should make up just over a third of the food we eat. Grain is an efficient form of production in terms of calories per hectare. The arable sector also provides products for animal feed.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.1.2a: Domestic UK cereal production as percentage of consumption (production to supply ratio), 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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The UK produces most of its own cereals (wheat, oats, barley, rye, triticale and mixed corn). The production to supply ratio has continuously been over 80% for the last 20 years and increased from 86% in 2021 to 93% in 2023. This shows that the UK continues to produce most of the cereals it consumes. Despite this increase, the total volume of domestic harvested production decreased by 1.8% in 2023 compared to 2021. Cereal production continues to show year-on-year variability.

Supporting evidence

Figure 2.1.2b: Annual and 5-year average domestic production and usage of cereals, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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Extreme weather events and market fluctuations have had a significant effect on production. For example, in 2019 UK cereal production (25.5mt) was the highest this century, whereas the following year production (19.0mt) was the second lowest. While individual years may vary greatly, production remains relatively constant over time, usually within the range of 20 to 25 million tonnes per year (see Figure 2.1.2b). To meet the demands of the domestic market, trade and stocks are used to balance the peaks and troughs in domestic production. In 2021 and 2022 production was above the 5-year rolling average and more grain was stored as stocks. In 2023 production was below the 5-year rolling average and stocks were used to meet domestic demand.

Figure 2.1.2c: Time series of UK cereal production, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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Production of wheat, barley and oats have all been volatile over the last 20 years, with wheat more so in recent years. Weather during planting led to growers switching from winter to spring planting (particularly barley). From 2022 to 2023 harvested production of wheat decreased by 11% to just under 13.9 million tonnes due to decreased area and yields. Yields of barley and oats were also lower in 2023 compared to 2022, and generally closer to or just below the 5-year average. The published first estimate of the 2024 English cereal and oilseed harvest shows a 22% decrease of harvested wheat from 2023 because of decreases in both yield and area. In contrast the provisional estimate of the English barley harvest is an increase of 2.7% on 2023. This comprises a 26% decrease in winter barley production offset by a 41% increase in spring barley. Oat production is estimated to increase by 20% in 2024 due to an increase in both area and yield. UK harvest data for 2024 will be published in December 2024.

Cereals alone do not provide a healthy, sustainable diet that meets all our nutritional needs. However, in a worst-case scenario, the grain production in 2023 of just under 22 million tonnes would nearly sustain the population from a purely calorific perspective if it was consumed directly by humans. Significantly however, the majority of domestically produced arable crops are not used for direct consumption. Rather, as explored further in Indicator 2.2.4 Land use, a significant proportion goes into animal feed. In 2023, 51.8% (11.4 million tonnes) of wheat, barley and oats were used as animal feed.

2023 saw the production volume of potatoes decrease for a fourth consecutive year. Production fell by 8.3% between 2021 and 2023 from 5.1 million tonnes to 4.7 million tonnes. Wet weather led to around 20% of the potato crop being unharvested by the end of September 2023, however harvest continued through into November by which time approximately 5% was left unharvested. Reduced domestic supply drove price increases and the annual price index for potatoes increased by 52% in 2023 compared to 2022. In turn, potato prices increased for consumers. The Consumer Price Index including Owner Occupier Housing costs (CPIH) for potatoes between March 2022 and March 2023 rose by 20.4, which was greater than CPIH for all food and non- alcoholic beverages (19.2) and CPIH for all items (8.9). Prices continued to rise in 2024, although there was a decrease in the rate of inflation between August 2024 and September 2024.

Imports

Import volumes of cereals such as wheat, oats and barley are much lower than domestic production volumes and see a less variable trend over the last 10-year period. The volume of imports is driven by the level of domestic production, market conditions such as the price, existing stock levels, and customer demand.

Due to environmental and climate conditions, the UK is consistently reliant on imports to meet demand for some arable crops. For instance, imports of wheat for flour milling account for around 15% of overall supply. Even if the UK had a top-quality harvest in terms of both quantity and quality, the milling industry would still require imports. These would come (predominantly) from Canada and Germany for milling wheats the UK does not grow due to differences in climate and soil. For the crop year 2023 to 2024, 1.1 million tonnes of imported wheat were used by UK millers, equating to 15% of the millers’ wheat usage. This is explored further in Theme 3 Indicator 3.1.2 Supply chain inputs.

The UK is entirely dependent on imports to meet consumer demand for rice, largely from India and Pakistan. International factors such as the uncertainty on the impact of El Niño on production and trade restrictions threaten UK supply. India in particular is a climate-vulnerable country that has experienced extreme heat and flooding in recent years. In 2022, India also imposed export restrictions on rice in response to surges in global agricultural commodity prices; this is explored further in Theme 1 Case Study 2 Export restrictions. Consequently, in 2022 India provided only 22% of UK rice supplies. In comparison, India supplied 27% in 2021 and 26% in 2023. However, UK supplies were maintained with additional rice sourced from other countries.

Figure 2.1.2d: UK imports of soya bean, 2003 to 2023

Source: HMRC Monthly Overseas Trade Statistics

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The UK does not grow sufficient protein crops to sustain its livestock sector. Theme 3 Indicator 3.1.1 Agricultural inputs explores UK demand for imported soya bean meal. Soya bean imports have shown year-on-year fluctuation but have remained relatively stable over the long term (the last 20 years). In recent years, Brazil has been the largest exporter of soya beans to the UK. In 2023 over half (54%) of all soya bean imports into the UK came from Brazil. As is explored further in Theme 1 Indicator 1.1.3 Global cereal production, the effects of climate change are projected to largely increase global mean soya bean yields by the 2050s. This increase will predominantly be found at higher latitudes, while reductions are projected for some major producing regions including the USA, parts of Brazil and Southeast Asia.

As arable commodities, both for food and animal feed, are internationally traded, the disruption to the supply of oilseeds and cereals resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused global prices to rise in spring 2022. Prices came down in 2023 but remain higher than pre-2021 with effects on access at household level (see Theme 4 Sub-theme 1: Affordability). Ukraine is a major supplier of sunflower oil and so the disruption to supply chains led to sunflower oil imports to the UK falling significantly and consequent increase in demand for rapeseed oil (see Theme 3 Indicator 3.1.2 Supply chain inputs).

Environmental impact of the arable sector

The high yield of UK cereal production relies on intensive farming practices which pose risks to sustainability of production. For example, pesticides, used to regulate growth and manage pests, weeds and disease, have detrimental environmental impacts, in particular terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. See sustainability indicators in this theme and Theme 3 (Indicator 3.1.1 Agricultural inputs) for analysis of impacts and usage.

Climate impacts

Comprehensive, detailed projected of yield changes across crop types for the UK based on projected climate change are currently unavailable. Severe cases of heat stress or prolonged drought can lead to a total crop failure. However, rising average temperatures are also anticipated to provide opportunities, for example, by lengthening growing seasons.

The impact of increased frequency of adverse weather events may pose more of an immediate risk to food production, in comparison to changes in mean climate, since farmers have less time to adapt (Harkness and others, 2020). This has been evident by domestic production volatility over the last 20 years. Looking ahead, the probability of wetter springs is estimated to increase across the UK in the future, and, with less certainty, so too is the probability of wetter winters (UKCP18). This could increase the risk of waterlogging (Harkness and others, 2020). However, it is important to reflect that the degree to which winters in the UK may be wetter is noted as being particularly uncertain.

Studies suggest that the UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production as many adverse weather indicators are projected to reduce in magnitude by mid-century (Harkness and others, 2020). Favourable changes include reductions in frost days, an earlier start to the growing season, lengthening growing season, faster crop growth, and field operations beginning earlier in the year. Additionally, hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are expected to improve sowing and harvesting conditions (Harkness and others, 2020). However, some changes that may be favourable overall may also be detrimental to certain crops, such as the reduction in vernalisation opportunities for winter-wheat. Furthermore, some of the favourable changes for crop yields will also be favourable for crop pests and diseases.

The potential impacts of climate change may be regional. Future climate projections suggest that the north and south-west may become more suitable for higher quality wheat in the future, while the east may suffer (Fradley and others, 2023). This may have an impact on the volume of bread-making wheat imported. Additionally, 2050 projections show time spent in drought is set to be similar to present-day for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, while increases are expected in England (Arnell and Freeman, 2021). Another study focusing on wheat found that prolonged water stress is not likely to increase significantly in the UK by 2050, and that the severity of drought stress during reproduction is projected to be lower in the 2050s for sites across the UK, except 2 sites in south-east England that are projected to experience increased drought stress severity (Harkness and others, 2020). Heat stress during wheat reproductive and grain filling periods is projected to remain a low probability in the 2050s (Harkness and others, 2020), however an increasing probability of at least one wheat heat stress day per year is projected for England (Arnell and Freeman, 2021). This may have an impact on the volume of bread-making wheat imported. Additionally, 2050 projections show time spent in drought is set to be similar to present-day for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, while increases are expected in England (Arnell and Freeman, 2021). Another study focusing on wheat found that prolonged water stress is not likely to increase significantly in the UK by 2050, and that the severity of drought stress during reproduction is projected to be lower in the 2050s for sites across the UK, except two sites in south-east England that are projected to experience increased drought stress severity (Harkness and others, 2020). Heat stress during wheat reproductive and grain filling periods is projected to remain a low probability in the 2050s (Harkness and others, 2020), however an increasing probability of at least one wheat heat stress day per year is projected for England (Arnell and Freeman, 2021).

2.1.3 Livestock and poultry products (meat, eggs and dairy)

Rationale

This indicator breaks down supply to livestock elements. Animal products provide a range of important macronutrients, such as protein, fats and carbohydrates, and micronutrients, such as iron, B12, calcium and vitamin A, and can contribute to a healthy diet for a large part of the population (Public Health England).

Headline evidence

Figure 2.1.3a: UK production to supply ratios for livestock sector (meat, dairy and eggs), 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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Over the long term the production to supply ratio for all livestock sectors has remained relatively stable. However, there was a decrease in the production to supply ratio of pig meat from 71% in 2021 to 64% in 2023. Similarly, the production to supply ratio has decreased from 93% to 82% for poultry meat, and from 92% to 87% for eggs. For both sheep meat and milk the UK continues to produce more than it consumes.

It is important to note that some meat imports and exports, such as meat-based ready-meals are not included in the production to supply ratio, therefore the figures do not provide a full picture, particularly for pig and poultry meat. Additionally, the production to supply ratio does not equate to self-sufficiency because the UK exports a high quantity of domestically produced meat and imports a high quantity of the meat consumed to meet consumer preference. For instance, the UK tends to export brown poultry meat and to import white poultry meat. This is discussed further under ‘carcase balance’ below.

Supporting evidence

Meat production

Figure 2.1.3b: Domestic UK meat production, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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A decrease in the domestic production of pig meat and poultry meat between 2021 and 2023 led to a decrease in production to supply ratio for each of these meats. While the production to supply ratio of beef increased, this was caused by a decrease in imports which experienced a greater decline than the fall in domestic production over this period. An increase in the domestic production of sheep meat led to the increase in production to supply ratio for this meat.

Over the long term, there has been a gradual increase in the production of beef. However, between 2021 to 2023 beef and veal production decreased by 0.6%. Over recent years, demand has been influenced by many factors, for instance, coronavirus (COVID-19) contributed to a decrease in demand at the beginning of 2021. The period of high inflation between 2021 and 2023 reduced the demand for beef as the price of beef is high compared to other meats. Similarly, pig meat has also seen a gradual increase in production over the long term. However, production decreased by 10.9% between 2021 and 2023. A fall in demand caused by the pandemic, a loss of exports to the Chinese market, supply chain issues from a disruption to carbon dioxide (CO₂), and a temporary shortage of labour in pork processing plants led to an oversupply of pigs and negative margins for producers. There has been a long-term increase in UK poultry meat production, largely driven by the relative affordability of poultry meat compared to red meat, and a general view that poultry meat is a healthier source of protein than red meat. However, there was also a 1.1% decrease in production for this meat commodity between 2021 and 2023 driven by high input costs, such as the 31% increase in poultry feed prices.

Over the long term the domestic production of mutton and lamb has remained largely stable. Between 2021 and 2023 there was a 2.8% increase in domestic production of mutton and lamb. While the input costs for sheep farmers have seen record high levels, sheep are less reliant on supplementary feed compared with other areas of meat production, so the industry was less affected by the 29% increase in compound sheep feed prices during 2022. UK supply and demand for mutton lamb is seasonal. While there is year-round demand, consumer demand peaks twice a year during the festive periods in spring and winter. The overall demand for lamb in the UK is lower compared to beef, poultry or pork.

Abattoir capacity and resilience

The numbers of UK abattoirs have declined in recent years (particularly smaller abattoirs), due to several factors including a lack of skilled labour, succession planning, and economies of scale. For example, 21% of smaller abattoirs in England closed between the period 2018 and 2022 (although throughputs increased by 2%). While these closures are unlikely to have a big impact on food security directly, it does increase the reliance on a small number of the bigger processors in the sector which in turn could affect the availability of meat in the future. Four processors account for approximately 90% of UK poultry production – 2 Sisters, Avara Foods, Moy Park and Cranswick. Smaller independent businesses account for the remainder of UK poultry production.

Abattoirs and the meat processing industry in general have been challenged with labour shortages over the last 3 years. A Food Standards Agency (FSA) commissioned research report published in 2022 found labour shortages in the meat processing industry (specifically, shortages of abattoir workers) and reduced slaughter rates, which in the short term resulted in periods of less meat entering the food supply chain. Labour is discussed in greater detail throughout Theme 3 Indicator 3.1.3 Labour and skills.

Imports and exports of meat

Difficult domestic production conditions over the last few years led to increased imports from both EU and non-EU countries. However domestic production continues to be the largest supplier to the UK market (82%). Imports of beef and veal from the EU decreased slightly between 2021 and 2023 while imports of pig meat from the EU increased slightly in this period. Imports from non-EU countries of poultry, beef and pig meat remain only a small proportion of total supply (AUK).

Animal feed

While the UK has a high domestic production to supply ratio for animal products, importing animal feed continues to be an essential component of the production process. As mentioned in Indicator 2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseed and potatoes), UK agriculture does not produce sufficient protein crops, for example peas, field beans, and sweet lupins, to support the livestock industry. Grass-based livestock production is therefore often augmented by the feeding of both domestic and imported grain and soymeal, particularly in intensive systems. See Indicator 2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseed and potatoes) for more details on soybean imports. Between 2019 to 2023 the volume of animal feed imported decreased by 6%. This was caused by the huge inflation in grain prices through 2022 which quickly fed into compound feed prices and created significant affordability problems for animal sectors. As such, livestock numbers were reduced and so demand for feed reduced. This is explored further in Theme 3 Indicator 3.1.1 Agricultural inputs.

The role of carcase balance on UK meat supply

In value terms, the UK remains a net importer of beef and pigmeat, reflecting consumer preferences for eating higher value products and exporting lower value products. The meat sector is unique in that it disassembles its product and therefore needs to find a market for all cuts. A range of export markets facilitates the ‘carcase balance’ and are important for the viability of production. Carcase balance supports the viability of production and a reduction in food waste, ensuring that meat processors are able to sell the whole carcase of the animals they slaughter. Cuts that have little demand in the UK or would have to be destroyed at a cost such as low value bone-in cuts and offal can be exported to countries where they are more desirable. This increases overall returns from the animal to the processor. At the same time the UK tends to import high value steaks and boneless cuts of meat to meet UK consumer demand. In 2022, the UK imported around 243,000 tonnes of chilled and frozen beef, and a further 52,000 tonnes of processed beef, and exported around 125,000 tonnes of chilled and frozen beef, and 29,000 tonnes of beef offal. Based on average chilled and frozen beef imports from 2020 to 2022, with knowledge of the types of cuts imported to into the UK, the International Meat Trade Association (IMTA) have estimated that to replace these supplies with British product would require UK supplies of cattle for slaughter to almost double (IMTA, 2023).

Similarly, in the pig sector the UK prefers loin, while there is limited demand for trotters and offal. There is a strong market for trotters and offal in Asia, with China being our largest export market (approximately 40% of export volume). The carcase balance is also relevant to the poultry meat and sheep meat sectors.

Eggs

Figure 2.1.3c: UK production, import and exports of eggs, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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Between 2021 and 2023 the production of eggs for human consumption decreased by 14.6% to 855 million dozen. There had been a tightening of the egg market since April 2022 as a result of rising input costs for feed and energy. These were partly caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with the impact of Avian Influenza outbreaks in 2021 to 2023. As these increased costs were being borne primarily by the producers and not being passed fairly along the supply chain, a number of egg producers took the decision to stop egg production either temporarily, or in some cases permanently. During 2023 the supply chain adjusted with the increased costs being more fairly distributed and this led to a gradual increase in egg prices. The value of egg production for human consumption increased by 30% between 2022 and 2023; this is the 6th consecutive year-on-year increase. This large value increase was driven by an increase in the price of eggs. Egg imports increased by 39% from 2021 to 2023 and are now similar to pre-2020 levels. The UK remains a net importer of eggs, although the overall volumes are relatively low due to our high domestic production making up 87% of supply.

Milk

Figure 2.1.3d: UK milk usage by type, 2003 to 2023

Source: Statistics on milk utilisation by dairies (Defra)

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Between 2021 and 2023 both the dairy herd and volume of milk produced has remained fairly stable. The size of the dairy herd fell by 0.9% to 1,837 thousand head, and the volume of milk produced from the dairy herd decreased by 0.8%. Across the 2023 calendar year, the average milk price decreased by 10% from a historic high in 2022, which was an increase of 42% from the 2021 price. The price decreases have meant the total value of milk production has decreased by 10% from 2022, but this value is still the second highest on record. Input costs began easing in late 2023. Approximately 45% of UK milk produced currently goes to liquid consumption and 55% to manufacturing, primarily into cheese, butter and milk powders. Trade is important to meet UK consumer demand for non-indigenous dairy products. For instance, in 2023 the UK imported 434 thousand tonnes and exported 180 thousand tonnes of cheese.

Animal disease

The presence and monitoring of Bovine Tuberculosis, Bluetongue and Avian Influenza is explored in Indicator 2.2.1 Animal and plant health.

Climate impacts

The extent to which projected climate change will impact UK livestock is currently uncertain. Heat stress is a likely effect of climate change. It can result in negative impacts on livestock productivity, fertility and reproduction, welfare and health. The average number of days per year that heat stress thresholds for various livestock types will be reached are projected to increase UK-wide between the period 1998 to 2017 and 2051 to 2070. These are based on projected changes in temperature and relative humidity from the UKCP18 regional climate model projections under the RCP8.5 scenario (Davie, Garry and Pope, 2021). Some places that did not experience heat stress conditions in 1998 to 2017 are projected to exceed heat stress thresholds for, on average, several days per year in the period 2051 to 2070. Studies have not yet explored the full range of uncertainty that may arise from using different climate models or scenarios. Heat stress could also lead to annual milk loss in some UK regions. For example, 17% of current annual milk yield could be lost in extreme years in the 2090s under the moderate emission A1B scenario, with south-west England identified as being most vulnerable (Fodor and others, 2018). Additionally, heat stress has been associated with reductions in egg production and quality of laying hens (Kim and others, 2024). Furthermore, lower farrowing rate of sows, negative impacts on pig foetal development, and slowed growth of grower and finisher pigs have also been highlighted as implications of heat stress (Liu and others, 2022).

Livestock may also be exposed to indirect effects of climate change such as changes to pests and disease. The number of days with temperatures suitable for sheep parasites is projected to increase across the UK by up to 35 days by the 2050s, under RCP8.5. The greatest increase is projected to be in Wales and southern and western England (Arnell and Freeman, 2021).

2.1.4 Fruits and vegetables

Rationale

Availability of fresh produce in the UK is an important part of food security and the health of the population. The Eatwell Guide indicates that just over a third of all food consumed in a day should be a variety of fruits and vegetables, with a minimum of 5 portions.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.1.4a: Domestic UK production of fresh fruits and fresh vegetables as percentage of overall supply (production to supply ratio), 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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In 2023 the production to supply ratio of fresh vegetables was 53%, down slightly from 57% in 2021. This is a continuation of the long-term gradual downward trend with the production to supply ratio having been 63% in 2003. The UK production to supply ratio for fruit increased from 15% in 2021 to 16% in 2023. Again, this continues a long-term trend, having increased gradually from 8% in 2003.

The relatively low production to supply ratios shows that the UK is more reliant on imports of fruits and vegetables than for other components of the UK diet. This is due to climate, seasonality, and consumer and producer choices. For example, in 2023 the UK imported 2,490 thousand tonnes of exotic and citrus fruits. Significantly, the UK is largely dependent on a few key countries for its imports of fresh fruits and vegetables, creating regional supply risks such as extreme weather events associated with climate change. The UK imported far less indigenous fruits (585 thousand tonnes). The production to supply ratio for many indigenous fresh vegetables such as cabbages, and some fruits such as strawberries, is far greater than the collective ratio (see Figure 2.1.4b for details). Supply sources of fresh fruits and vegetables are shaped by the seasonality of production, this is explored further later in this indicator.

Figure 2.1.4b: Examples of the production to supply ratio for indigenous fruits and vegetables

Source: Latest horticulture statistics (Defra)

Food type	2021	2022	2023
Apples	37%	41%	38%
Pears	16%	14%	13%
Plums	9%	14%	13%
Strawberries	64%	67%	66%
Raspberries	30%	38%	38%
Cabbages	90%	85%	81%
Cauliflower and Broccoli	64%	54%	49%
Carrot, Turnip and Swede	95%	98%	96%
Mushrooms	47%	49%	48%
Lettuce	34%	43%	44%
Tomatoes	17%	15%	15%

Supporting evidence

UK consumers would need to eat at least 30% more of a variety of fruits and vegetables by weight to meet UK government dietary recommendations (NHS England, 2022). This would represent a significant increase in demand and supply. However, both domestic production and imports of fruits and vegetables face a number of challenges such as extreme weather events, climate change, disease, and high input costs.

Figure 2.1.4c: UK sources of fresh vegetables, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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Domestic production of vegetables

Between 2021 and 2023 the volume of domestic production of vegetables decreased by 13% to 2.2 million tonnes. Over this period the price of vegetables increased (see Theme 4 Indicator 4.1.3 Price changes of main food groups for further detail). The decrease in production was primarily caused by extreme weather conditions, when a wet spring affected planting and harvesting, significantly delaying the start of the season for most crops. In early summer the weather turned hot and dry, so that any crops established in this period favoured farmers with access to irrigation and those without struggled to get crops to germinate or grow. In July, the weather turned wet, and this persisted until the end of the year, causing harvesting and disease issues (Horticulture statistics, 2023). Further still, production of protected vegetables (vegetables grown in a protected environment such as a glasshouse or polytunnel; including tomatoes and lettuce) has fallen each of the previous 8 years since peak production in 2015.

Increased energy costs due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also impacted production in recent years, particularly Controlled Environmental Horticulture (CEH) production of tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers. Faced with soaring heating bills many growers chose to delay or reduce planting. This decision, driven by economic necessity, led to a significant shortfall in domestically produced vegetables, adding pressure to imports from regions like Spain and North Africa that were already grappling with their own weather-related challenges (see below). This resulted in a temporary reduction of availability of tomatoes and peppers in early 2023, leading to higher prices from strained supplies.

Figure 2.1.4d: UK sources of fresh fruits, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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Domestic production of fruits

Between 2021 and 2023, the volume of fruit production increased by 1.3% to 585 thousand tonnes. The value of fruit production increased by 14%, driven by increased output prices particularly for raspberries and strawberries. However, between 2022 and 2023, fruit production fell by 12% from 663 thousand tonnes because like vegetables, fresh fruit production was impacted by extreme weather conditions. For instance, from 2022 to 2023 the total production of culinary apples decreased by 30% to 59 thousand tonnes, the lowest it has been over the last 10 years. This was due to both reductions in the planted area (down 1.2% to 2.3 thousand hectares), and yields (down 29% to 26 tonnes per hectare). Trees that had suffered from drought stress in 2022 had significantly less blossom in 2023. Cold winds during flowering in May adversely affected pollination and reduced crop potential.

There is currently a research gap exploring the projected effects of climate change on domestic fruit and vegetable production.

Imports

Consumers in the UK demand access to fresh produce all year round, including tropical and out-of-season produce. This is particularly true of fresh fruits and means that it must be sourced overseas from countries with more suitable climates. As a result, the UK is highly reliant on trade for its fresh fruits and vegetables. From a nutritional perspective, research shows that in 2010, imports of fruits were the greatest source of vitamin C in the UK while imports of vegetables were the greatest source of vitamin A.

There is a highly seasonal element to the supply of fresh fruits and vegetables, meaning that supply sources vary according to the time of year. For instance, tomatoes are seasonal both domestically and abroad. In 2023, the Netherlands was the largest exporter of fresh tomatoes to the UK during the summer months, when domestic production is also at its greatest. However, during the winter months both domestic production and imports from the Netherlands decreased and were replaced by southern European and North African countries, primarily Spain and Morrocco. The UK’s economic strength and diversity of supply sources therefore provides consumers with year-round availability.

Significantly however, some fruits and vegetables such as bananas can only grow in certain overseas regions due to climate suitability. This concentration of production may create a supply risk which is considered later in this indicator.

It is also important to consider the sustainability of exports in terms of resource use and environmental impacts on the exporting country. The capacity to meaningfully substitute imports with domestic production depends on the seasonal timing of the domestic and international supply. While field crop systems demonstrate a significantly lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) than heated greenhouse alternatives, the impact of domestic products can only fairly be compared with the impact of international products that are imported during the UK harvest season. Comparing glasshouse and open fields cultivation systems also demonstrates some trade-offs between energy and non-energy related environmental impact categories, for instance, water scarcity.

Ongoing research by Wrap for Defra shows that country origin where food is produced matters, as some regions are more productive than others. Importing from such regions may have lower environmental impact than domestic production, though this must be balanced against economic and food security objectives. However, there may be trade-offs between different environmental metrics – notably land use and water use – with one origin country or production method being favourable for some criteria but unfavourable in others. In addition, producing food out-of-season can substantially increase the GHG footprint, and importing from countries where it is in season (‘global seasonal’ food) is often preferable. ‘Seasonal’ is therefore a more important criteria than ‘local’ for environmental impact, except for air freighting food, as this adds considerably to its carbon footprint. Novel production methods may alter these conclusions in future, but only if they are guaranteed as using very low-carbon energy. The conclusions should be periodically reviewed as these technologies develop, though at present, field-grown appears preferable in most cases.

Sustainability of UK imports is explored in more detail elsewhere in the report (see Theme 1 Indicator 1.2.4 Water availability, usage and quality for global agriculture and Theme 4 Indicator 4.3.3 Sustainable diet).

Figure 2.1.4e: Origins of fresh vegetables in UK domestic consumption, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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The shorter shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetables means the supply chain tends to be localised although this can be extended by canning, drying and freezing.

The EU remains a significant source of fresh vegetables for the UK. In 2023, 39% of fresh vegetables for UK domestic consumption were imported from the EU, down from 43% in 2018. Supplies of fresh vegetables from the EU have stabilised following the initial supply chain disruption after 1 January 2021 (note the changes in the methodology for data collection by HMRC as mentioned in Indicator 2.1.1 Overall sources of UK food). Overall, 92% of domestic consumption of fresh vegetables in 2023 was met by domestic and EU production. While this is a decrease from 97% in 2018 it reflects the continuing importance of geographical proximity for importing fresh produce.

Geographical proximity is also evident at a country level. In 2023 the largest exporters of fresh vegetables to the UK were Spain (32%) and the Netherlands (25%), this hasn’t changed since 2018. However the proportion of imports arriving from Spain decreased from 39%. During this time there was an increase in imports from Morrocco (predominantly tomatoes). After Spain and the Netherlands, the largest exporters of fresh vegetables to the UK in 2023 were France (8.0%), Morocco (7.5%), and Poland (4.8%).

The importance of Spain and Morrocco as suppliers of fresh fruits and vegetables to the UK was demonstrated in 2023. Some domestic shortages of tomato, pepper and other fresh salad shortages were attributed to drought and heat in North Africa and southern Europe (Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, 2023). The impact of drought and water stress on horticulture in Spain is explored further in the case study below. Theme 1 Indicator 1.2.4 Water availability, usage and quality for global agriculture provides a map of the levels of water stress globally, with North Africa showing highest levels. Further research is needed to understand the wider impact on fruits and vegetables from climate change.

Figure 2.1.4f: Origins of fresh fruits in UK domestic consumption, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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The EU also remains an important supplier of fresh fruits, providing the UK with 27% of fresh fruits consumed in 2023, compared to 31% in 2018. Overall, the origins of fresh fruits for domestic consumption is more diverse than vegetables, with 58% by volume from non-EU markets in 2023, a small increase from 56% in 2018. This reflects continued UK consumer demand for tropical and out-of-season fruit which cannot be sourced domestically or from Europe. The more diverse nature of supply can be seen when reviewing the UK’s largest suppliers. In 2023, the UK’s largest supplier of fresh fruit was Spain (16%), followed by South Africa (13%), Costa Rica (10%), Colombia (8.9%), and Brazil (5.5%). This has changed very little since 2018.

Although the supply of fruits and vegetables is diverse, this varies for specific commodities. While food security implications are unclear, regional concentrations of production could result in greater risk of supply disruption from regional impacts. Melons are only cultivated in warm regions, and they are highly susceptible to frost (Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, 2023) so can only be sourced from certain regions. In 2023, the UK imported 118,311 tonnes of melons (excluding watermelons), 49% of which were from Brazil and 25% from Spain. Similarly, bananas grow best in tropical areas, or hot areas with good irrigation and most can be found within 30 degrees of the equator (Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, 2023). In 2023, the largest 5 exporters to the UK, each located in either South or Central America (Columbia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Dominican Republic and Nicaragua), supplied 77% of all bananas coming into the UK. This has changed very little since 2018 (74%). As mentioned in Theme 1 Indicator 1.5.2 Global One Health, bananas have become the most purchased fresh fruit in the UK and are therefore an important source of micronutrients (particularly vitamin B6 and vitamin C) to the UK population. While there are other available sources of micronutrients, potential risks to the production of bananas such as the threat of pests (see Theme 1 Indicator 1.5.2 Global One Health) may create a risk to this consumer choice.

Case Study 1: Impact of drought and water stress on horticulture production in Spain

This case study illustrates some of the changing climate risks to agricultural production in Spain, a key region for UK imports of fruits and vegetables, with risks associated with water availability and heat stress. In 2023, Spain supplied 84% of total imports of lettuce, 37% of lemons and limes, 33% of oranges, and 30% of total fresh or chilled vegetables.

Drought and water stress already challenge agriculture in Spain, leading to reductions in fruit and vegetable production. For example, in 2022, “a long-lasting winter drought impacted exports to Northern Europe”, with exports of both fruits and vegetables 40% lower in 2022 compared to the previous year (Cooke, 2023). Irrigation is particularly important for agriculture in south-east Spain. For example, since its introduction in 1979, the Tagus–Segura Transfer (which channels water from the Tagus river to the Segura river in Spain) “has contributed a significant amount of water resources for both urban supply and for agriculture (irrigation) in south-east Spain”. Drought events affect rain-fed crops directly, and can also affect irrigated crops, through restrictions to irrigation (Pullman, 2022). For example, the transfer of water to south-east Spain via the Tagus–Segura Transfer is vulnerable to droughts around the Tagus headwaters (in central Spain, east of Madrid). This can limit the water available for transfer to the agricultural regions in south-east Spain (Cañizares and others, 2022). Climate projections indicate reduced rainfall in Spain, with an increase in temperatures leading to more evapotranspiration (water transfer to the atmosphere from the land by evaporation and by transpiration from plants), exacerbating the drying signal. Periods with low rainfall and high evapotranspiration (potentially limiting the availability of water for irrigation), are projected to become substantially more frequent by 2050, compared to what has been observed to date. However, changes to infrastructure or agricultural production systems, for example, improved irrigation techniques and water storage, may mitigate the impact of the changing risks of drought.

Temperature-related risks are specific to each agricultural product. Even for a particular crop, different varieties may have different tolerances and vulnerabilities to heat stress risks, as well as at different stages of crop growth. Climate projections indicate increases in average temperatures across Spain in all seasons. Such projected temperature increases are associated with an increasing frequency of high heat events, which can adversely affect the agricultural production of crops such as tomatoes, sweet peppers and grapes. Fresh grapes are primarily imported from Spain to the UK in August to October, with berry ripening occurring 1 to 2 months prior to harvest. Analysis exploring the changing risks of heat stress during berry ripening shows that days with maximum daily temperature above 40°C (an important threshold for grapes (Venios and others, 2020)) during July to October have historically occurred relatively infrequently (fewer than 5 days per year). This has occurred primarily in southern Spain, and in Aragon and Catalonia around the Ebro River Valley. By the 2050s, such events are projected to occur across most of Spain, with some regions (including parts of Andalusia and Extremadura) projected to experience more than 20 days per year.

Another notable example is that top fruit crops (including apples, cherries, peaches) require a cold period (vernalisation) to emerge from dormancy and produce fruit. Projected higher temperatures put this vernalisation event at risk, affecting viability and yields of these crops (Rodríguez and others, 2021). From the perspective of UK food security, climate risks to production in one international location may be mitigated by production elsewhere, either through imports from alternative international locations or increased domestic production. The degree to which local adaptations may be delivered should be considered when assessing overall risks to the UK’s international sources of food.

2.1.5 Seafood

Rationale

The UK Eatwell Guide recommends consuming two portions of fish every week, including one of oily fish. As with livestock products, while not everyone in the UK eats fish it is a key source of protein and nutrients. Oily fish is also a source of omega-3 fatty acids.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.1.5a: UK landings by UK vessels, imports and exports of fish and shellfish, 2013 to 2022

Source: Marine Management Organisation (MMO), UK sea fisheries annual statistics report 2022: Section 4 – Trade - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) and Section 2 - Landings - GOV.UK

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Due to data collection methods and multiple sources of fish, a production to supply ratio is not possible for seafood in the way it is for other commodity groups. However, reviewing the volumes of UK landings from UK waters alongside import and export volumes can provide an overall picture of where fish consumed in the UK is sourced from.

The UK is a net importer of fish. Between 2018 and 2022 total fish imports decreased from 674,000 tonnes to 647,000 tonnes, while exports decreased from 448,000 tonnes to 330,000 tonnes. By comparison, between 2012 and 2018 the volume of fish both imported and exported was largely stable (accounting for annual fluctuations). These trends reflect a decrease in the trade of fish with the EU after 1 January 2021. From 2018 to 2022 the total volume of landings by UK vessels into UK ports fell by 7.7%. Climate change and overfishing remain a risk to fishing and marine sustainability.

Supporting evidence

Imports and consumer demand

The UK imports 90% of the seafood consumed, relying on imports to meet domestic demand, especially for cod, haddock, tuna, shrimp and prawns. Salmon is the only species which is both imported and exported in significant quantities.

In 2022, the top 5 imported species by volume were:

1. Tuna (106,300 tonnes) a 3% decrease from 2018 (109,500 tonnes)

2. Freshwater salmon (95,800 tonnes) a 20% increase from 2018 (80,100 tonnes)

3. Cod (84,800 tonnes) a 18% decrease from 2018 (102,900 tonnes)

4. Shrimp and prawn (77,700 tonnes) a 3% decrease from 2018 (80,200 tonnes)

5. Haddock (54,800 tonnes) a 10% increase from 2018 (49,800 tonnes)

In 2022 the 10 largest suppliers to the UK provided 64% of total imports of seafood. By comparison, in 2018 the 10 largest suppliers provided 59% of total imports of seafood. The 3 largest exporters to the UK in 2022, Norway, China and Iceland, accounted for 33% of all seafood imported by volume. Whereas the top 3 suppliers in 2018, China, Iceland and Germany, accounted for 26% of total seafood imported. This suggests that overall, UK imports have become more concentrated amongst its largest suppliers, while remaining reasonably diverse.

In 2022, Norway was the largest exporter to the UK supplying 17% of total imports (112,000 tonnes), mainly salmon and haddock. While this data suggests that imports from Norway have seen a huge increase since 2018 when exports to the UK were only 34,500 tonnes, there have been changes for some products in how the data is recorded by HMRC. As a result, some fish that were previously declared as coming to the UK via Sweden are now declared as coming directly from Norway. China was the second largest exporter to the UK supplying 9.4% of total imports (60,500 tonnes), mainly cod and ‘other fish’ (haddock, mackerel, salmon, sardines and tuna). China acts as a processing hub for import-originating seafood which is re-exported to other markets such as the UK. Iceland was the third largest exporter to the UK supplying 6.5% of total imports (42,000 tonnes), mostly cod and haddock.

Total imports of seafood to the UK from the EU decreased from 228,700 tonnes in 2018 (34% of total imports) to 159,300 tonnes in 2022 (25% of total imports), primarily from Germany, Denmark, Spain and Sweden. Approaching and following 31 December 2020, additional administrative costs associated with documentation requirements and new border processes contributed to cost-burdens on imports.

Theme 1 Indicator 1.1.6 Global seafood production explores the proportion of global fish stock within biologically sustainable levels globally. With regards to the largest exporters to the UK, only 50% (2021 figures) of fish stocks in Norway are biologically sustainable, which is well below the global average of 62.3%. Sustainability therefore remains a concern for UK supply. However, 76.9% of fish stocks in Iceland are biologically sustainable. There is no data available for China. Overexploitation varies significantly by country within the EU. For instance, 70.6% of fish stock are within biologically sustainable levels in Germany (2021), whereas only 41.4% are in Spain (2021).

Consumer demand

A decrease in consumer demand for fish correlated to higher prices. As explored in Theme 4 Indicator 4.3.1 Consumption patterns, between FYE 2020 and FYE 2023 the purchases of fish decreased by 15.1% (in grams per person per week) (Family Food Report, 2023). Simultaneously, the Consumer Price Index (CPIH) increased from 113.6 in 2020 to 136.2 in 2023. The impact that rising food prices has on household food security is explored in Theme 4 (Sub-theme 1: Affordability).

Landings (UK vessels into the UK):

In 2022, UK vessels landed 395,800 tonnes of seafood into the UK, the majority of which is exported. This was a 7.6% decrease from 2018. The vast majority of landings into the UK are by UK vessels. Multiple factors impact fishing, and landings tend to fluctuate considerably over time. The biggest impact on sea fisheries in recent years has been the UK’s departure from the EU. This had an impact on the stocks and species the UK fleet had access to fish in subsequent years. Between 2018 and 2022 the volume of demersal fish (including cod, haddock, sole and monk) landed in the UK by UK vessels decreased by 19%. There was also a 7.1% decrease in shellfish landed. However, the volume of pelagic fish (including herring, mackerel and sardines) landed in the UK by UK vessels increased by 1.6%. UK landing of cod and haddock account for a small share of supply to UK consumers. A reduction in landings of cod and haddock, all other things being equal, would likely be offset by an increase in imports from key import partners. The effect on food security would therefore likely be minimal. For species such as Nephrops (scampi), where the UK accounts for a significant share of global production (58%), a reduction of landings may be more difficult to substitute. However, domestic consumption is a very small share of landings, and the redirection of exports to satisfy consumption may occur.

It is important to monitor population status and the proportion of fish stock being exploited as indicators of marine biodiversity and the sustainability of the UK seafood industry. The population status of some sensitive fish and shellfish stocks in the Celtic Seas and Greater North Sea shows a mixed picture. Some species have declined in both the short and long term while the status of others has improved. On balance, a greater number of species are recovering. Between 1999 and 2019 the proportion of fish stocks within biologically sustainable levels in seas around the UK increased from 42.1% to 57.9%. Figures for fish stocks within biologically sustainable levels have plateaued, having remained the same from 2015 to 2019.

Similarly, while there has been some annual deviation, the proportion of fish stocks that are being overexploited in seas around the UK has decreased over the last 20 years from 63.2% in 1999 to 26.3% in 2019 (the most recent year that data is available). Note that measures are based on a group of 20 species in 57 stocks for which there are reliable estimates. The indicator stocks include a range of local and widely distributed species of major importance to the UK fishing industry. The statistics show promising progress towards halting the decline in species population status and overexploitation. The indicator is not available for reporting in 2024 in a finalised form.

For 2024, 36 of the 79 baseline Total Allowable Catch (TAC) were consistent with ICES advice (46%). This is an increase of 6% compared to 2023 where 32 TACs (40%) were consistent.

Exports

The UK is a net exporter of herring, mackerel, salmon, nephrops (langoustines) and scallops. Between 2018 and 2022 the EU remained the largest export market for UK seafood. However, exports decreased to many of the UK’s biggest market countries both within and outside the EU. The main outlier was exports to France which increased from 78,400 tonnes in 2018 to 115,300 tonnes in 2022. Variations are driven by UK landings (which reduced by 7.7% between 2018 and 2022), and aquaculture production (see below for details).

Domestic Aquaculture

Aquaculture in the UK is a growing industry. In 2021, the UK produced 240,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish with a value of £1.17 billion. This was a volume increase of 9% and value increase of 15% from 2020. However, there remains year-on-year variability. In 2022 overall domestic production decreased to 201,355 tonnes, although nominal value increased to £1.32 billion.

The top 5 specifies by volume in 2022 were:

1. Atlantic salmon (169,194 tonnes)

2. Rainbow trout (14,091 tonnes)

3. Sea mussels not elsewhere included (12,510 tonnes)

4. Pacific cupped oysters (2,564 tonnes)

5. Salmonoids not elsewhere included (1,476 tonnes)

Salmon produced in Scotland dominates the sector and in 2022 Scottish salmon represented around 93% of the value of UK aquaculture production. Over the longer term the production of Atlantic salmon produced in Scottish fish farms has increased. Production increased by 17% from 2002 (144,589 tonnes) to 2022 (169,194 tonnes). However, production remains variable year-on-year and 2022 saw an 18% fall from 2021 by volume, although the value of production increased. 2022 levels by volume were also a 17% decrease from 2019. An increase in the population of micro-jellyfish which led to gill health issues was identified as a contributing factor behind this decrease. The UK aquaculture sector may have some capacity to scale up production, to meet demand should salmon imports fall, but there will be a time lag associated with increase production and potential constraints on expansion.

The mortality rate on Scottish salmon farms is explored in Indicator 2.2.1 Animal and plant health.

Climate impacts

Sea surface temperatures in UK shelf seas are projected to continue to increase by between 0.25°C and 0.4°C per decade. Although remaining within thermal limits for many species, this could see increased competition from warmer-water species and northward shifts in plankton production. This is likely to continue to shift the distribution of fish and shellfish species commercially important to the UK northwards. As a result, north-west European waters are likely to see a change in species composition from traditional species such as cod, haddock and saithe, to those currently more widespread in southern Europe such as black seabream, European seabass, sardine, blue fin tuna and anchovy (Townhill and others, 2023). These potential changes in fish distribution may misalign with fishing quota allocations in the UK Exclusive Economic Zone and set by the European Common Fisheries Policy (Baudron and others, 2020).

Warmer waters are also likely to result in increased pressure from marine pests and pathogens such as parasitic copepods (sea lice) that infect salmon and trout and pathogenic bacteria like Vibrio species that accumulate in fish, shellfish and crustaceans (Trinanes and others, 2021). (See Theme 5 Case Study 2: Determining increased risk of Vibrio in seafood linked to climate change). Despite this, sea lice incidence could decline due to reduced dissolved oxygen availability at the surface, and vertical separation if fish inhabit deeper waters in response to future warming. This is because the main sea lice species, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, affecting salmon are found near the surface.

Sub-theme 2: Sustainability and productivity

2.2.1 Animal and plant health

Rationale

UK food security is dependent on the UK’s management of risks to animal and plant health from pests and diseases. Pests and diseases can affect food availability by causing production losses. They can be either endemic, exotic or new and emerging. Endemic means they are already present in the UK and their distribution and presence changes little from one year to the next. Exotic means they are not normally present in the UK. New and emerging means it is too early to determine whether government intervention is needed. Biosecurity measures, such as border controls and testing are used to manage the risk of exotic diseases becoming established in the UK. Managing the integration between people and animals on farm or at the wildlife interface is also important to prevent disease spill-over.

Notifiable diseases are diseases that must be reported to governmental authorities by law, even in suspected cases. These diseases could present a risk to animal or human health. Reporting suspected cases of zoonotic disease allows health protection teams to manage potential outbreaks and prevent further infection in humans. Avian Influenza, which affects poultry, and Bluetongue, which affects cattle, sheep, and other ruminants, are 2 of the diseases that are controlled in this way.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.1a: Notifiable animal disease investigations in Great Britain, 2013 to 2023

Source: Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)

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Reports of exotic animal notifiable diseases have risen with heightened disease risk. From 2020 to 2023, the total number of report cases in Great Britain increased from 163 to 308. In particular, the reports of Avian Notifiable Disease rose from 71 in 2020 to 157 in 2023. In 2023 there were 62 confirmed cases of Avian Influenza in Great Britain. Reports of Bluetongue also increased, from 13 in 2020 to 48 reports in 2023, of which 17 were confirmed cases.

Significantly, between 2020 and 2023 the ratio of reports to confirmed cases of Avian Influenza remained broadly stable, decreasing slightly as reports increased. This means that government veterinary services are continuing to detect disease early and livestock keepers are remaining vigilant to emerging disease risks. Data for Great Britain is broadly consistent with Northern Ireland risk assessment.

The average number of report cases of exotic notifiable diseases per year between 2013 and 2023 has been 223. Where the number of report cases per year has exceeded this, it has been in years where there has been a confirmed outbreak of Avian Influenza and the increased number of report cases are a result of greater vigilance by animal keepers. Similarly, an increased awareness of the risk posed by Bluetongue also increased report cases in 2016.

The Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) publish a monthly animal disease surveillance report which monitors new and existing diseases in cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry across England and Wales. Details on how the disease risk is assessed and how risk incursion levels in the disease surveillance report are calculated are available following the links. A similar report is produced for Scotland by the Scottish Agricultural Colleges Veterinary Services Division (SACVSD).

Plant pest outbreak data

While some UK pest and diseases have affected domestic production (see further analysis below), ascertaining the overall effect these diseases have had on food security is complex and beyond the scope of this report. The risk from climate change to animal and plant health is discussed in Theme 1 Indicator 1.5.2 Global One Health.

Supporting evidence

Biosecurity and exotic pest and disease risk

The UK Plant Health Risk Register (UKPHRR) provides information on more than 1,400 plant pests and diseases, including their presence or absence in the UK and the pathways by which they can be spread. One measure that can be tracked using the UKPHRR data is the number of GB quarantine (notifiable) pests moving from being absent to present in the UK. No quarantine pest and disease moved from being absent to present from 2022 to 2023. There is no historical data available for this measure. Further information on the UKPHRR and trade in plants is available.

Over the period 1969 to 2022, invasive non-native species have become more prevalent in the countryside. Since 1969, the number of these species established in or along 10% or more of Great Britain’s land area or coastline has increased in the freshwater, marine (coastal) and terrestrial environments. This has likely increased the pressure on native biodiversity. Comparing the latest data point from 2022 with the previous one, 2019, the number of invasive non-native species established in or along 10% or more of Great Britain’s land area or coastline has increased in terrestrial environments (from 60 to 61 species). It has also increased in freshwater environments (from 13 to 14 species) and remained the same in marine environments (29 species).

A case study on the outbreak of the Colorado beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) in 2023 can be found at the end of this indicator.

Endemic pest and disease risk

Wheat

Figure 2.2.1b: Septoria tritici plant crop incidence and severity, 2003 - 2023

Source: Crop Pest and Disease Survey

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The Crop Pest and Disease Survey looks at the major disease and pests affecting wheat and oilseed rape. For wheat, this indicator tracks Septoria tritici as it’s the most important and damaging foliar disease on winter wheat in the UK. The pathogen reduces green leaf area for photosynthesis. It causes significant yield loss every year. It also affects grain quality. Losses of 50% may occur in severely affected crops. Unusually dry weather throughout May and June may reduce losses, but heavy dews can still allow infection. Higher rainfall areas, in the south and west, are most at risk (AHDB).

Although wheat is the main host, the disease occasionally affects rye, triticale and some grass species (AHDB).

The first two leaves are the biggest contributors to wheat yields. Between 2003 and 2023, the percentage of plants whose first leaf was affected by Septoria tritici fell by 66% percent to 26.6 points at the national level. Crop incidence (number of fields affected) rose by 18.2% percent to 82.3 points and the severity of infection (percentage of each plant affected) fell by 1% to 0.7% (Crop Pest and Disease Survey).

The percentage of plants whose second leaf was affected by Septoria tritici rose by 23.4% to 59.2% at the national level. Crop incidence (number of fields affected) rose by 32.9% to 84.5% and the severity of infection (percentage of each plant affected) fell by 2% or 3.7%. This means that in 2023 less plants in more fields were getting affected by Septoria tritici than in 2003 (Crop Pest and Disease Survey). The severity of the disease has not increased in line with the rise in crop and plant incidence over the last 20 years.

Fungicides can either be protective, eradicative or a mixture of the two. AHDB data shows that while protection from Septoria tritici has increased between 2018 and 2020, protection from mixed operation fungicides has reduced since 2020. Maintaining fungicide efficacy is important to being able to effectively manage fungal disease.

Oilseed rape

Cabbage Stem Flea Beetle (CSFB), a major pest of winter oilseed rape which can destroy a plant’s growing point and cause crop failure (AHDB) has spread in recent years (John Innes Centre, 2019). CSFB in the UK continues to display resistance development to pyrethroids which has led to control failures (Wills and others, 2020). Climate risk modelling has shown that high CSFB pressure is associated with hot and dry summers, warm autumns and mild winters (AHDB). AHDB are monitoring CSFB at several winter oilseed rape sites across England during autumn 2024. The monitoring data will strengthen a long-term data set that shows how CSFB migration varies annually and regionally in response to local conditions. In addition, the ongoing annual (for the past 40+ years) Defra Crop Pest and Disease survey monitors larval populations of the beetle at specific crop growth stages across England and Wales. The survey assesses how risk is influenced by changes in weather, agronomic practice, crop protection and economic considerations.

Figure 2.2.1c: Phoma Canker plant crop incidence and severity, 2003 - 2023

Source: Crop Pest and Disease Survey

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Phoma canker was selected as it is a significant disease affecting oilseed rape. It is used in vegetable oils as biofuel and can be used as an animal feed. Oil has become an important substitute to sunflower oil since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other significant diseases of oilseed rape include light leaf spot, sclerootinia and clubroot.

Yield-reducing cankers make Phoma one of the most serious diseases of winter oilseed rape in the UK, especially in central, southern and eastern England. Despite fungicide treatment, infection is estimated to cause economic losses of about 20-78 million each season based on disease prevalence data, yield loss estimates, production data and average price 2012-2021. Early Phoma epidemics on small plants are associated with the greatest yield losses, with typical reductions of 0.5 tonnes per hectare in susceptible varieties.

Between 2003 and 2023, the percentage of plants in the Crop Pest and Disease Survey affected by Phoma Canker fell by 9.8% to 52.4% at the national level. Crop incidence (number of fields affected) rose by 0.8% to 97.8% and the severity of infection (percentage of each plant affected) fell by 20.3% to 19.1%. This means that in 2023 less plants in a similar number of fields were getting less severely affected by Phoma Canker than in 2003. From 2003 to 2023, the severity of infection and plant incidence both decreased and crop incidence slightly increased.

The effect of pest and diseases on crop yield varies significantly year-on-year and is highly weather dependant. For example, Phoma leaf spot generally starts to show on infected leaves after at least 20 days of rainfall (AHDB). The relationship between disease incidence and food security is complicated and a rise in disease incidence in the UK does not necessarily translate into an increased food security risk.

Bovine Tuberculosis

Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic bacterial disease of cattle and can have a significant impact on the work of farms. Cattle which are found (or are highly likely) to have TB are slaughtered. Additionally, when an animal in a herd tests positive for the disease, the whole herd is put under movement restrictions until all the remaining animals are tested repeatedly with negative results.

Milk from TB test reactor cows cannot enter the human food chain. Milk from non-reactor cows in TB-restricted herds can be used for human consumption subject to pasteurisation. Meat from cattle that are slaughtered for TB control reasons can enter the human food chain subject to veterinary public health inspection.

In Great Britain statistics are presented every quarter at country, regional and county level. In Northern Ireland, the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) collates and publishes separate official statistics on TB in cattle, the latest report is available. Although the incidence and prevalence rates have shown fluctuation over the last 3 years, it has remained largely stable with no sharp rises and improvements in some places. In addition, Scotland has had official TB free status since 2009. In the north and east of England, bovine TB herd incidence and prevalence remain very low.

Scottish salmon mortality and sea lice

Monthly mortality as a percentage of biomass on Scottish salmon farms (and across other countries) has generally been increasing since 2011 due to various health issues and warmer winters. The mortality rate reported in 2023 peaked at 4.82% in October 2023. This is an increase from the peak in 2020, which was recorded at 2.64% in August 2020. However, mortality as a percentage of fish over a production cycle (numbers input minus output market) has remained steady since the 1990s when bacterial vaccines were introduced. Mortality is a limiting factor in maximum production potential (Moriarty and others, 2020).

Sea lice are an issue on salmon farms. Fish infected with lice cannot be sold to market due to damage from the lice. Even at low levels, sea lice can represent a threat to wild fish populations when farm infestations are not contained. In extreme cases, sea lice infestations can also increase salmon mortality on salmon farms. Sea lice counts are managed between 2 lice per fish (where increased surveillance is required) and 6 lice per fish (the threshold at which action is required). The upper threshold is rarely exceeded. However, sea lice treatment can itself be associated with significant mortalities if the treatment goes wrong, especially mechanical methods (hydrolicer, thermolicer) that can stress the fish. Between 2021 and 2024 the upper quartile of the average number of sea lice per fish across all farms peaked in January 2022 at 1.5 sea lice per fish. The highest average sea lice count in 2024 (up to 13 May 2024) was recorded in February at 0.67 lice per fish. Overall, average sea lice count has reduced since 2022 (Rabe and others, 2024).

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR)

Sales of veterinary antibiotics for use in food-producing animals, adjusted for animal population, decreased to 25.7 mg/kg in 2022. This is a 9% (2.6mg/kg) decrease since 2021 and an overall 59% (36.6mg/kg) decrease since 2014. This represents the lowest sales ever recorded and a positive trend in terms of reducing AMR on the farm to support animal health in the long term.

Case Study 2: Colorado beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) outbreak

In July 2023, the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) confirmed findings of single Colorado beetle colony in a single potato field in Kent, UK. This represented a risk from an exotic pest.

This beetle first became established in Europe in France in 1921, before establishing in most other European countries. The beetles are occasionally imported into the UK from continental Europe as ‘hitchhikers’ on non-host plant material, such as leafy vegetables, salad leaves, fresh herbs and grain. However, the beetle has yet to establish in the UK and the outbreak in 2023 was the first since outbreaks in 1977.

If not eradicated, Colorado beetle is a significant threat to potato crops for domestic consumption and export prohibitions. The adult beetles and larvae feed on the foliage of potato and several other plants in the nightshade family and can completely strip them of their leaves if they are left uncontrolled.

Official surveillance was carried out to 5 km in potato fields, allotments and private gardens to detect the presence of other Colorado beetles in 2023 and 2024. These actions are in line with Defra’s contingency plan for the beetle. No Colorado beetles were found in 2024. Further surveillance will be carried out in 2025 to confirm eradication of Colorado beetle.

Through the official national surveillance programme and stakeholder vigilance, with officials responding to reports from growers, farmers, processors, agronomists, and members of the public, the UK can detect findings of the beetle early. It can then eradicate it before it is able to establish and spread.

2.2.2 Food waste

Rationale

Food waste represents a significant economic and environmental loss within the food system due to unnecessary land and resource use, excess carbon emissions and avoidable soil degradation. High levels of food waste across agriculture and industry are also a negative factor in productivity, as excess effort has been applied to produce food that holds little financial value. Levels of household food waste are a measure of the sustainability of UK diets (FAO,2019) (see Theme 4 Indicator 4.3.3 Sustainable diet).

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.2a: Total food waste arising in the UK, by sector and including household waste, 2021

Source: WRAP: UK Food Waste and Food Surplus

Sector	2021 Waste volume (million tonnes)	% share
Household	6.4mt	60%
On-farm	1.6mt	15%
Manufacture	1.4mt	13%
Hospitality & Food Service	1.1mt	10%
Retail	0.2mt	2%
Total	10.7mt	100%

The definition of ‘food waste’ covers both edible parts (wasted food) and inedible parts (including eggshells, animal bones and inedible fruit peel). In 2021 the Global Environmental Action NGO Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP), estimated that 10.7 million tonnes of food went to waste in the UK. Total food waste in the UK is equivalent to 25% of all food purchased. Household food waste represented the biggest share at 60% (6.4 million tonnes). Note that there is significant uncertainty around the amount of on-farm waste, with WRAP estimating this to be between 0.9 and 3.5mt. This report uses WRAP’s central estimate of 1.6mt. In 2021, 71% of food waste was edible parts and the remaining 29% was inedible parts (this excludes on-farm waste).

Supporting evidence

Total food waste per capita in the UK amounted to 115.7kg in 2021, representing a 5.6% increase compared to 2018, but a reduction of 18.3% compared to 2007. Breaking this down, food waste collected from UK households by UK authorities (not including food waste going down the sewer and home composted) amounted to 75.5kg per person in 2021. This represents a 13.5% increase compared to 2018 yet is still a 17% reduction compared to 2007. Retail food waste per capita reduced by 8.5% between 2018 and 2021, and by 26.0% from 2007. Similarly, manufacturing food waste per capita reduced by 9.2% between 2018 and 2021, and by 33.6% from 2007. How these trends relate to targets on food waste is discussed in The Courtauld Commitment 2030 Milestone Report 2023.

Household waste

The relationship between food prices and household earnings contributes to the levels of household food waste; lower prices in relation to household earnings are associated with more food purchased and subsequently more food wasted. In 2021 food prices relative to earnings were lower compared to previous years, with a 9.2% decrease from January 2018 to January 2021. Additionally, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic may have contributed to increased levels of household food waste in 2021 as more food was consumed in the home during this year compared to pre-pandemic years.

Of the total 6.4 million tonnes generated by UK households, (based on data collected in 2021/22, 74% (4.7 million) was classified as edible parts. Fresh fruits and vegetables saw the highest wastage rate of all groups, with potatoes being the most wasted food overall. The cost to households of purchasing food and drink that was subsequently wasted was £17 billion. This figure is for edible parts only and does not include other costs associated with this food such as cooking, storage, and transport from the shop to the home. This equated to an estimated £250 per person each year, £600 per household, or £1000 for a household of 4. Meat and fish made up 19% of the total food waste by financial cost to householders despite making up only 6% of food waste by weight.

Household food waste greenhouse gas emissions

Waste further diminishes sustainability in the food system by generating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Data collected in 2021/22 showed that wasted food and drink in the UK accounted for approximately 18 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, which is around 3% of total GHG emissions relating to consumption in the UK. This figure included contributions from relevant components of the food and drink system including land-use change, agriculture, manufacture, packaging, distribution, retail, transport to the home, storage and preparation in the home, and waste treatment and disposal. Broken down by food group, despite making up only 6% of food waste, meat and fish contributed the largest proportion of GHG emissions of wasted food (26%). Further information on the environmental impact of UK diets is covered in Theme 4 Indicator 4.3.3 Sustainable Diet.

Food waste and surplus on farms

In 2019 WRAP estimated food surplus and food waste levels from primary production, based on the best available data from the UK taken from around the world. Food surplus is material that was at risk of becoming food waste, but went instead for redistribution, animal feed, or to become bio-based materials. This typically happens with grains, root vegetables, brassicas and top fruit such as apples. The estimated 3.6 million tonnes of combined food waste and food surplus equated to 7.2% of all food harvested (2019). This would have had market value of £1.2 billion at farm gate prices, although a small part of this value is recovered through sales for animal feed and bio-based materials. Food surplus was estimated at 2 million tonnes per annum (4% of all food harvested), while food waste was estimated at 1.6 million tonnes (3.2% of all food harvested). Breaking the food waste down by food groups, horticultural crops made up 54% of the total, cereals 30%, livestock 8% and milk 8%. Causes of waste in primary production may include weather, pest and disease occurrence, supply and demand and storage conditions.

Redistribution

Around 2.8 million tonnes of food surplus from farms, manufacturing, retail and hospitality, and food service is either being distributed via charitable and commercial routes or being diverted to produce animal feed. Both are classed as waste prevention according to the food and drink waste hierarchy. The amount of surplus food being redistributed by charitable and commercial routes in the UK is steadily increasing. Figures published by WRAP show that in 2023 organisations (which had been included in the WRAP survey) reported receiving around 191,000 tonnes of redistributed food. This equates to food worth approximately £764 million and corresponds to nearly 456 million meals. This is an increase of 15% from 2022. While tonnes of surplus food redistributed by charitable and commercial channels have both continued to rise, charitable channels remain far more dominant accounting for 65% surplus redistributed.

Data limitations

The WRAP data relied upon for this report is from 2021 and is not yet updated for 2024. It should be noted that while the UK evidence base on food waste has been recognised as one of the strongest in the world, there remain significant uncertainties associated with the data. The quality of data varies by sector, from households and retail (both relatively accurate), to manufacture and hospitality and food service (relatively weak) and primary production (weak, and partly modelled using non-UK data).

2.2.3 Agricultural productivity

Rationale

This indicator uses total factor productivity (TFP) to assess agricultural productivity. TFP is the ratio of agricultural outputs over agricultural inputs, giving a measure of efficiency of production. More efficient production supports UK food security by allowing the UK to produce at least the same amount of food with less inputs, or higher output for the same input. This reduces dependencies on finite resources like land and fertiliser. Increased agricultural productivity can be either damaging or conducive to environmental sustainability depending on the nature of the change. Inputs included in agricultural TFP are purchases (for example seeds and fertilisers), consumption of fixed capital, all labour, and land. Output is the volume of sales.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.3a: Total factor productivity of the agricultural industry, 1973 to 2023

Source: Total factor productivity of the agricultural industry - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

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In recent years TFP has been volatile. TFP is estimated to have decreased by 1.2% between 2021 and 2023. This was driven by a decrease in the volume of outputs that more than offset a fall in inputs. The volume of all outputs decreased by 4.6% which included decreases across the majority of crop and livestock volumes.

The volume of all inputs decreased by 3.5% between 2021 and 2023. The majority of inputs decreased, with energy use decreasing by 9.0% and fertilisers decreasing by 25%. The decrease in fertiliser use was largely driven by rising energy prices starting in 2021, a phenomenon exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with gas being a key input to fertiliser production. See Theme 3 (Indicator 3.1.1 Agricultural inputs) for further details. TFP itself has not been affected substantially by this, as output prices were high and output itself remained stable in 2022 compared to 2021 (and indeed up on 2020 levels).

Supporting evidence

Since the series began in 1973, agricultural TFP has increased by 60%, driven by an increase in the volume of all outputs by 32% and a decrease in the volume of all inputs by 17%. TFP has grown at an annual average rate of 1% between 1973 and 2023, although this growth has not been constant over this time. From approximately the year 2000, agricultural output has been volatile, whereas the input series shows a smoother trend despite a sustained decline in the early 2000s. The TFP series tracks more closely to the output series volatility than the smoother input series.

Between 1984 and roughly 2000, TFP growth was on average 0 in the UK. Barriers to achieving consistent positive agricultural TFP include the slow adoption of new on-farm technology and practices due to farmers’ risk aversion, and lack of access to accurate information regarding the benefits of adoption. New technology can in most cases be costly. Thirtle suggests the main reason for the stagnation during this period was the sharp decline in publicly funded agricultural research and development (agri-R&D) in the early 1980s (Thirtle and others, 2004). In 2022, the UK government spent roughly 2% (£300m) of R&D expenditure on agriculture, down from 4% in 2012.

Since 2000, TFP has increased by an average of 1% per year due to a reduction in inputs for a stable output, however it is documented that TFP in the UK remains behind our international competitors. International comparisons of TFP are difficult due to data limitations and differing methodologies.

Although external factors such as prices, weather conditions and disease outbreaks may have a short-term impact on productivity, it is technological development and innovation that is expected to improve productivity over a longer period. The overall upward trend in the UK is therefore an indicator of recent innovation in the sector (for example the Agritech strategy in 2013 and Transforming Food Production Challenge which ran 2019 to 2024). A specific example of innovation is where yields of wheat increased by 5 to 10% with the introduction of the Reduced Height genes during the Green Revolution. Further research is underway helping semi-dwarf wheat grow in water-limited environments, mitigating potential impacts of climate change. Another example is the collaboration between Cranfield University and the European Space Agency in 2014 to create FarmingTruth, a precision agriculture service which combines soil data with satellite images to improve crop yields. This led to a reduction in nitrogen fertiliser.

The impacts of climate change on agricultural production will vary across the UK. It will affect the range and quality of ecosystem services that agricultural production relies upon, including climate control, flood regulation, biodiversity and nutrient cycling. Agriculture has already invested in new R&D introducing new genotypes, varieties, breeds and management practices. However, there will be a need for further anticipatory adaption measures as the climate continues to change.

2.2.4 Land use

Rationale

Measuring utilised agricultural area (UAA) gives a high-level view of how the UK is using the agricultural land available to produce the UK’s food. Land available for food production gives an indication of the long-term sustainability of our domestic production. This is because it is unusual for land to enter agricultural use, so it is necessary to monitor UAA levels for any trends towards a decline. However, there is not a direct link between UAA and food production and indeed a decline in UAA with increased efficiencies can still produce an increase in food production. It is productivity with respect to land that is significant when seeing how production responds to land use changes.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.4a: Total utilised agricultural area (UAA) by type, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agricultural Land Use in the UK (Defra)

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The total UAA has seen a gradual but small decrease over the long term. In 2023 there were 17.0 million hectares of UAA covering 70% of land in the UK. This represents a 3.5% decrease from 2003 and a 1.4% decrease from 2020. The distribution of area for different types of land has remained broadly the same. UAA is made up of arable, horticultural, uncroppable arable, common rough grazing, grassland (temporary and permanent), and land for outdoor pigs. It does not include woodland or other non-agricultural land. Not all land is equal; gradient, soil quality, rainfall, water levels and other factors make much of the UK’s agricultural area unsuitable for crops, while other parts are suitable only for specific crops. The high proportion of grassland primarily reflects the unsuitability of much of the UK’s land for growing crops, and the relative suitability of those areas for grazing.

Supporting evidence

Change from UAA to other uses

While there has been a small reduction over the long term, the UK is broadly maintaining its level of total UAA at around 70%, with some year-on-year variation. Greater fluctuation happens in terms of uses within UAA (see below) although that is also quite stable. Defra will be publishing the UK wide agricultural land use figures for 2024 on 12 December 2024. Looking ahead, based on current government policy framework for incentivising types of land use, it is expected that there will be increases in land use change from agricultural land to other uses. These uses include woodlands, grasslands, and restored peatland, as well as some being devoted to economic infrastructure like energy and housing. The impact this will have on food production will be affected by the kind of land being taken out of production. For instance, the impact is negligible if it is unproductive land which is taken. It is plausible that with continued growth in output and conducive market conditions, that food production levels could be maintained or moderately increased alongside the land use change required to meet our Net Zero and Environment Act targets and commitments. However, analysis projecting decades into the future involves significant uncertainties. The government is due to publish a land use framework to guide land managers on the balance of opportunities and risks.

Climate changes mean that types and quality of land are a moving picture (for which there is a data gap). Land classification data is being reviewed so it is challenging to map in the UK where losses and gains are for production.

Change and uses within UAA

Figure 2.2.4b: UK croppable area by area type, 2003 to 2023

Source: Agriculture in the UK (Defra)

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Changes in how UAA is used has been a much more important variable affecting food production than changes in total UAA available. How UAA is used is largely determined by land type and factors such as weather. The majority of UAA (57%) is permanent grassland. Permanent grassland is land used for at least 5 consecutive years to grow grasses, legumes, herbs and wildflowers. It is land which is not included in the crop rotation and is typically land unsuitable for cultivation. Permanent grassland is often part of a livestock farming system, as it can be used to provide forage. The area of permanent grassland has remained relatively stable but did decrease by 3.1% between 2020 to 2023.

The croppable area consists of cereals, oilseed, potatoes, other arable crops, horticultural crops, uncropped arable land, and temporary grass. The total croppable area in the UK was just over 6.0 million hectares in 2023 and accounted for just over a third (36%) of UAA. This remained broadly unchanged between 2020 and 2023, increasing by 1%. Within this, some crops had greater changes than others. Much of the annual variation between specific crops is due to factors such as the weather and prices rather than any long-term and more systematic variation. Year-on-year land use change is typically in the range of 0% to 5%. The scale of change over the last 3 years is largely within or close to this typical range, although there have been noticeable declines in areas of both potatoes and horticulture.

The total area of arable crops increased by 1.3% between 2020 and 2023 and stands at just under 4.4 million hectares. Published figures for England at 1 June indicate that overall areas of arable crops declined from 2023 to 2024, largely due to flooding and difficult weather conditions. This resulted in failed crops and a partial switch to spring plantings. Cereal crops accounted for 71% of the total area of arable crops across the UK. The total area of cereal crops in the UK increased by 1.0% between 2020 and 2023 to almost 3.1 million hectares. This also represents a 2.0% increase in area of cereals from 2013. The total area of oilseeds (oilseed rape, linseed and borage) increased by 0.6% between 2020 and 2023 (418 thousand hectares). However, this is a 44% decrease from 2013.

The area of land sown in the UK for potatoes decreased by 19% between 2020 and 2023 (to 115 thousand hectares), which continues the decline in this area since 2019. It is also a 17.5% decrease in the area of potatoes since 2013. The area of horticultural crops (of which 91% is used to grow fruits and vegetables), decreased by 12.6% between 2020 and 2023 (to 145 thousand hectares). Indicator 2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseed and potatoes) and Indicator 2.1.4 Fruits and vegetables explore production volumes.

Use of produce

The majority of crops are used for animal feed rather than direct human consumption, with some crops also being used for bioenergy. Cutting across both grassland and croppable land, in 2023 85% of the total UAA was used for animal feed or animal production. This proportion has remained fairly stable since 2020. In these estimates all grassland has been assumed to be used for animal feed and 58% of the total croppable area. Animal feed is therefore a major use of UK agricultural land. Livestock, which consumes animal feed offer a much less efficient calorie conversion than crops for direct human consumption. The dominant use of land for animal feed in the UK is therefore an important consideration for questions around the sustainability and productive capacity of UK food production. Further research is needed to understand the full implications for food security. It is generally not practical to convert non-croppable UAA to crops for human consumption due to economic viability, environmental issues, soil types, weather and other factors, whereas all croppable land has the potential to be used for human consumption.

In 2023, 133 thousand hectares of agricultural land in the UK were used to grow crops for bioenergy, this is a 9% increase on total area in 2020. In 2023 crops grown for bioenergy represented 2.2% of the arable land in the UK. 36% of land used for bioenergy was for biofuel (biodiesel and bioethanol) in the UK road transport market, with the remainder mostly used for heat and power production. Maize used for anaerobic digestion was the largest contributor, with 73 thousand hectares (England only) being used for bioenergy. This was a slight decrease from 2020 (75 thousand hectares). In 2023, 45 thousand hectares of wheat was also used for bioenergy, this is a substantial increase from 2020 (30 hectares).

Some agri-environmental schemes (AES) have led to land being taken out of food and other crop production to support long-term biodiversity and sustainable production. AES such as the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) may temporarily take land out of production but will not reduce the total UAA. As of July 2024, around 250,000 hectares of land have been entered into SFI options that temporarily restrict food from being produced on that land. For context, this is the equivalent of around 3% of England’s UAA (9 million hectares). Other AES, for instance some forms of habitat creation, may lead to a reduction in UAA. The amount of food produced on land varies, so setting aside lower productivity land does not have a proportional impact on food production.

Data caveat

The drop in land area in 2009 is attributable to changes in the English coverage of the farming population and a register cleaning exercise. England figures prior to 2009 cover all farm holdings, whereas figures from 2009 onwards only relate to holdings with significant levels of farming activity (for example, holdings with over 5 hectares, or holdings with over 10 cattle). Full details of the thresholds are available. In addition, a register cleaning exercise in 2009 resulted in a drop in overall land area but had very little impact on levels of farming activity.

It’s important to note that while UAA data is estimated annually, this is only done on a sample of farms. A full census is conducted every 10 years, 2010 and 2021 being the most recent, when all active commercial farms in England are asked to complete the surveys. This may account for some small year-on-year fluctuations in accuracy.

Land use is reported by farms based on the most predominant crop in a field. Any farm with silvo-pasture or grazed woodland is asked to record the land under grassland (not woodland) so it is still captured within the UAA. Areas under silvo-arable management are requested to be split so any non-fruit trees would fall within woodland and be excluded from UAA. This may cause small discrepancies in recording.

2.2.5 Biodiversity

Rationale

Biodiversity is the variety of all life on Earth. It includes species of animals, plants, bacteria and fungi, and the natural systems that support them. Agriculture is reliant on healthy biodiversity and can contribute towards it. For example, farmland provides semi-natural habitats, such as hedgerows and field margins, that provide food and shelter. Monitoring the abundance of species is essential for our understanding of the state of the wider environment, particularly as measures of species abundance are more sensitive to change than other aspects of species’ populations. It should be noted that for a more comprehensive indication of the state of the wider environment, indicators of species abundance should be reviewed alongside species distribution and extinction risk indicators.

The headline evidence is the ‘relative abundance of all species’ and the ‘relative abundance of priority species’ in England only. This is because data for the ‘all-species’ indicator at the UK level is still in development, and the UK indicator of priority species abundance only covers to 2021 and relies upon an older methodology. Defra are looking to update the data and methodology at UK level.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.5a: Change in relative abundance of species in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: Indicators of species abundance in England (Defra)

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Figure 2.2.5b: Change in the relative abundance of 149 priority species in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: Indicators of species abundance in England (Defra)

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The all-species indicator draws on data for 1,177 species for which there is suitable data, which mainly represents species found in terrestrial and freshwater environments. It includes wild birds, bees, butterflied fish, freshwater invertebrates, mammals, moths and vascular plants. Priority species are defined as those appearing on the priority species list for England. Currently this measure includes data on 149 of the 940 priority species in England including birds, butterflies, mammals and moths.

For both the all-species and priority species indicators 2 possible versions of the indicator are presented, option 1 being smoothed on a 10-year timescale and option 2 being smoothed on a 3-year timescale. Smoothing is applied to the species abundance indicators to reveal long-term trends in the otherwise noisy data. A greater degree of smoothing may provide a clearer view of the underlying long-term trends while a lesser degree of smoothing preserves the short-term patterns in the data. The shaded area of both options represents a 95% credible interval. Index values represent change from the baseline value in 1970. The credible interval widens as the index gets further from the 1970 value and confidence in the estimate of change relative to the baseline falls. Future development of this indicator includes working towards an indicator for the abundance of all-species at the UK scale. This will help to strengthen Defra’s understanding of the health of the UK-wide ecosystem, upon which agriculture depends.

Both indicators capture a decline in species abundance across England since 1970. For the all-species indicator, this trend appears to level around the year 2000 to just under 70% of the 1970 value. Over the past 5 years, fluctuations in the all-species indicator have been within the 95% credible intervals and therefore are not considered to represent meaningful change (credible intervals capture uncertainty in the trends of individual species that contribute to the index). The priority species indicator has declined much further than the all-species indicator, to just over 20% of the 1970 value, but with a similar levelling off period from 2000. The statistics show promising progress towards halting the decline in species abundance.

Supporting evidence

Farmland birds

Farmland bird populations have long been considered a good indicator of the broad state of wildlife and the environment in the UK on which agriculture relies on. This is because they occupy a wide range of habitats and respond to environmental pressures that also operate on other groups of wildlife. In addition, there is considerable long-term data on trends in bird populations, allowing for comparisons between trends in the short term and long term. They also occupy levels in food webs that help give an indication of ecosystem health. In 2023 the UK farmland bird index was 61% below its 1970 value. The majority of this decline occurred between the late 1970s and the 1980s largely due to the negative impact of rapid changes in farmland management during this period. The decline has continued at a slower rate in the short term, showing a decline of 9%. The long-term decline has been driven mainly by the decline of those species that are restricted to, or highly dependent on, farmland habitats, such as starlings and tree sparrow. The short-term decline is seen across both specialist and generalist species of farmland bird.

Farming practices such as the loss of mixed farming, a move from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, and a change in grassland management all contributed to this decline. While some farming practices continue to have negative impacts on bird populations, most farmers do take positive steps to conserve birds. Several incentive schemes encourage improved environmental stewardship in farming, for instance uncropped margins on arable fields, and sympathetic management of hedgerows are designed to stabilise and recover farmland bird populations.

Insects

Insects including butterflies are considered to provide a good indication of the broad state of the environment. This is because they respond rapidly to changes in environmental conditions and habitat management, occur in a wide range of habitats, and are representative of many other insects in utilising areas with abundant plant food resources. The abundance of butterflies on farmland has declined from the start of the time series in 1990. Specialist farmland species in particular have shown strong declines.

Pollination is an important ecosystem service that benefits agricultural and horticultural production and is essential for sustaining wildflowers. Many insect species are involved in pollination. Bees and hoverflies are some of the most important and are presented here as indicators of trends in the distribution of all pollinators. Insect pollination depends on the abundance, distribution and diversity of pollinators. Knowledge of the population dynamics and distribution of those species that provide the service, the pollinators, helps us assess the risk to these values. There was an overall decrease in the pollinator indicator, which is made up of wild bee and hoverfly species, from 1987 onwards. In 2022, the indicator showed a decrease of 24% compared to its value in 1980. Between 2017 and 2022, the indicator showed little or no change.

Many wild bees and other insect pollinators species that have become less widespread can be associated with semi-natural habitats. At the same time, a smaller number of pollinating insects have become more widespread. Loss of foraging habitat is understood to be a major driver of change in bee distribution, and pesticide use has been shown to have an effect on bee behaviour and survival. It has been particularly challenging for hoverflies to recover population. It is unclear whey hoverflies show a different trend to bees, although difference in the life cycle will mean they respond differently to weather events and habitat change. Weather effects, particularly wet periods in the spring and summer, are also likely to have had an impact. New seasonal patterns driven by climate change are increasingly disrupting the ecosystem services provided by pollinators, with impacts of reductions in food production. For instance, global analysis indicates that pollinators are increasingly losing their synchronization with timing of key crops dependent on pollination such as apples. Further research is needed to understand the relative importance of these potential drivers of change.

Animal Genetic Resources

Genetic diversity of animals is an import component of biological diversity. Rare and native breeds of farm animals are often associated with traditional land management required to conserve important habitats and may have genetic traits of value to future agriculture. Between 2000 and 2022 the average effective population size of the native species at risk deteriorated for pigs and horses but improved for sheep and cattle. However, since 2017, the average effective population size has been assessed as deteriorating for all species.

2.2.6 Soil health

Rationale

In the context of the UKFSR, soil health means the physical, chemical and biological condition of the soil determining its capacity to provide ecosystem services; in this case, the production of food. Soil health is essential to the long-term security of food and feed production. Healthy soils produce higher agricultural yields and more nutrient rich crops. 95% of food is directly or indirectly produced on soil. The Climate Change Committee identified soil health as one of the key concerns for climate change. Healthy, resilient soil is vital for producing food, improving water quality, increasing biodiversity, storing carbon, and helping to mitigate climate change impacts such as flooding and drought.

More data to inform soil health assessments will be available in the future through the Natural Capital and Ecosystem Assessment (NCEA) Programme but not in time for the UKFSR 2024. Moving forwards this will help measure the long-term sustainability of the food system. For now, the Soil Nutrient Balances report can be used as a proxy to show us what changes are occurring in UK agricultural soil. The Soil Nutrient Balance data is part of the best data available for understanding certain aspects of soil health, but it does not provide a holistic overview. Soil health encompasses a range of physical, chemical, and biological factors, and nutrient balance alone cannot fully represent these dimensions.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.6a: UK soil nutrient balances (nitrogen and phosphorous Levels), 2009 to 2022

Source: UK and England soil nutrient balances, 2022 (Defra)

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Soil nutrient balances provide an indication of the overall environmental pressure from nitrogen and phosphorus in agricultural soils. They give an indication of the potential risk associated with losses of nutrients to the environment, which can impact on soil health, air and water quality, and climate change.

The overall UK nitrogen balance of management agricultural land in 2022 was a surplus of 79.1 kg/ha, which represented a decrease of 11.7 kg/ha (-12.9%) compared to 2020. This was driven by a decrease in Total Inputs of 6.0 kg/ha (-3.2%) coupled with an increase in Total Offtake of 5.6 kg/ha (+5.8%) over the same period. Levels in 2022 were also a decrease of 29.3kg/ha (-27%) compared to 2000.

The overall UK phosphorus balance in 2022 was a surplus of 2.8 kg/ha, which represented a decrease of 3.7 kg/ha (-51.1%) compared to 2020. This was driven by a decrease in Total Inputs of phosphorus of 2.0 kg/ha (-9.0%) coupled with an increase in Total Offtake of 1.6 kg/ha (+10.0%) over the same period. 2022 levels were also at a decrease of 6.8kg/ha (-71%) compared to 2000.

The 2022 estimates for both the UK nitrogen and phosphorus balances were the lowest since the annual time series began in 2000. This was caused by record low inputs from inorganic fertilisers, likely to be a response to high purchase prices (prices of inorganic fertiliser are explored in Theme 3 (Indicator 3.1.1 Agricultural inputs)).

Supporting evidence

The nutrient balances are used as a high-level indicator of farming’s pressure on the environment and of how that pressure is changing over time. The balances do not estimate the actual losses of nutrients to the environment, but significant nutrient surpluses are directly linked with losses to the environment. Soils require a minimum level of plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus and other essential nutrients to fulfil the soil functions of food, feed and fibre production. An excess of nitrogen and phosphorous affects soil health through the potential declines to soil organic matter, and over-application of fertilisers have been shown to increase the decomposition of soil organic matter in some soils (Treseder, 2008; Condron and others, 2010). Ensuring food security and soil health requires a balanced approach to nutrient management with enough to meet the need of the crop but avoiding excess to reduce environmental harm. The reduction of both the nitrogen and phosphorus balances indicates a fall in excess nutrients which is positive for the wider environment.

Despite this positive trend, soil health remains at high risk from climate change and intensive farming. The Environment Agency’s (EA) State of the Environment report estimated that, in England and Wales, soil degradation was putting 4 million hectares of soil at risk of compaction as well as over 2 million hectares at risk of erosion. The EA concluded that soil degradation is leading to flooding risks and is threatening biodiversity, water resources and soil fertility. For example, a review of 24 studies in the UK found that for every 10cm depth of topsoil loss, yields decreased by 4%.

There are signs that farming practices are changing to become more environmentally friendly; between 2021 and 2023 there has been an increase in the uptake of Agri-Environmental Schemes (AES) (see Indicator 2.2.9 Sustainable farming for further details). One of the options for sustainable farming is to incorporate vegetation and residue covers. Studies have shown that vegetation and residue covers of 30 to 40% in autumn can have a significant impact in reducing soil erosion rates by 20 to 80% (Chambers and Garwood, 2000), while higher covers of 60 to 70% can reduce the erosion rate by 50 to 90% (Niziolomski, 2014). It is however, too early to assess the impacts of these new AES on soil health.

Climate impacts

An increase in the frequency of extreme weather is a threat to soil health, particularly high rainfall and drought. Hotter, drier conditions make soils more susceptible to wind erosion, and high rain which can wash soil away. The UKFSR 2021 included a study carried out by the Met Office which explored the potential future impacts of climate change on UK soil erosions risks through changes to rainfall erosivity.

Peat

The long-term viability of domestic farming will rely upon changing land management practices. Carbon-rich, lowland peat soils provide some of the UK’s most productive farmland. It is estimated that approximately 12% of all lettuce and 10% of all available onions in the UK are produced on UK peat as modelled using the Crop Map of England 2020 and the England Peat Statis GHG and C storage data layer. However, lowland peat soils are rapidly degrading due to historic drainage for agriculture and food production. In parts of the lowlands, such as the Fens, it is estimated that there could only be enough soil left to continue farming using current practices for another 20 years. Indicator 2.2.8 Greenhouse gas emissions explores the importance of protecting soil health to reduce emissions.

2.2.7 Water quality

Rationale

Water is essential to agriculture, with vast quantities used for both irrigation and livestock. Good quality water is part of a sustainable future for agriculture and long-term food security in the UK. There are wider implications of water quality including biodiversity and public health. Reviewing the ecological and chemical status of UK surface waters can provide an insight into UK water quality. Agriculture is one of the main drivers of lower quality water, so this indicator is relevant to both the availability of quality water for agriculture and the impacts of agriculture on water. This indicator is assessed based on the most recent available data. In England this is to 2019 and the next classification update is due in 2025. The headline evidence focuses on data for England where there is the majority of UAA. Annual data for 2017 and 2018 were not collected and appear blank on the indicator. Data for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are covered in the supporting evidence.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.7a: Status classifications of surface water bodies in England under the Water Framework Directive, 2009 to 2019

Source: England biodiversity indicators: 21. Surface water status (Defra)

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In 2019 16% of all surface waters in England were classified as having a good ecological status. This has remained fairly stable since 2016. Less than 1% of surface waters were classified as high in 2019, while 63% were classified as moderate. 17% were classified as poor and 3% were classified as bad. Ecological status is assigned using various water, habitat and biological quality tests. Failure of any one individual test means that the whole water body fails to achieve good or better ecological status or potential (the ‘one out all out’ rule). Of the underlying tests for all 4,658 surface water bodies, 79% met the requirement for good ecological status. Only 14% of rivers achieved good ecological status, and only 43% of tests for fish living in rivers were classified at good ecological status in 2019.

While the proportion of all surface waters in England classified as having a good ecological status remains relatively low, significant progress has been made to improve water quality over the long term. However, in recent years improvements have plateaued.

Supporting evidence

Alongside the ecological status, the chemical status of surface water bodies is also assessed. Chemical status is calculated by assessing 52 different chemical elements and water bodies are classified as either good or failing. England adopted advanced monitoring for persistent chemicals in 2019 and consequentially no surface water bodies in England attained good chemical status in 2019. This was due to the presence of 3 ubiquitous, persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic (uPBT) pollutants. Significantly, these pollutants need to break down or disperse naturally so while these substances are now banned or restricted in the UK, they can remain in the environment for decades. Had new advanced monitoring not been used to detect these uPBT pollutants then 93.8% of surface water bodies would have reached good chemical status, compared to 97% in 2016. This shows a slight decline in the chemical status of surface water bodies in England.

However, over the long term there has been improvement in water quality in England. Between 1990 and 2023 there has been an 80% reduction in phosphorus concentrations. Excessive phosphorus in the water environment causes eutrophication. Similarly, levels of ammonia, which is toxic to aquatic life including fish, have reduced to 15% of their levels in 1990. Species such as seahorses, seals and salmon have returned to rivers and estuaries. However, as research shows, improvements have plateaued. This can be attributed to an increasing population, ageing infrastructure, increased pollution risks, and the pressure on our drainage system.

Groundwater

In England, 73% of groundwater bodies met good quantitative status in 2022, this remained stable from 2019 and is an increase from 60% in 2009. However, in 2019 (the latest available data) 45% of groundwater bodies were classified as good, this is a decrease from 53% in 2015 and 58% in 2009. Nitrate is the most common cause of groundwater test failure. The percentage of tests which failed due to nitrate increased between 2015 and 2019.

Northern Ireland

Water body status has stagnated in Northern Ireland during the past few years. In 2015, 32% of Northern Ireland’s surface waters were at ‘good or better’ ecological status compared to 31 % in 2021. Some water bodies improved in ecological status, but this was offset by deteriorations in others. Further information on chemical status for surface water bodies as well as chemical and quantitative status for groundwater bodies is available in the Water Framework Directive Statistics Report 2021. An update for surface water classification is planned for later in 2024.

Scotland

Scotland’s water is famed worldwide and is critical in the production and branding of some of its biggest exports, and a big draw for tourists. The water environment in Scotland is generally in good condition. Overall, 65%% of surface waters were classified at good or high status and 85% of groundwaters were classified as good in 2022. As part of this assessment, 54% of surface waters achieve a good or high ecological status. However, there are environmental pressures on waterbodies, including diffuse pollution, discharges of waste water, abstractions and historic physical alterations (SEPA).

Wales

In 2021, 40% of surface water bodies in Wales had an overall ecological status of ‘good or better’ under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This rises to 44% when looking just at Wales’ rivers. These latest results are 8% higher than the first classification in 2009. Overall, 91.4% of surface waters were chemically classified as ‘good’. Within this, 99.1% of lakes were classified as ‘good’ but only 60.9% of costal water bodies had good chemical status. Each of the 39 groundwaters assessed achieved a ‘good’ quantitative status. However, 17 of those were downgraded due to ‘poor’ chemical status. This suggests that pollution is a greater threat to Welsh groundwater than over-abstraction. Pollution in Welsh waterways comes from a wide range of sources. The most prominent known reasons for failing to achieve ‘good’ status under WFD are agriculture and rural land use, followed by water industry, mining and quarrying.

Impacts of water quality on agriculture

Water quality affects farming, food production and food safety. The agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water. Water quality is a vitally important pre-harvest factor for preventing foodborne contamination during food production. For example, irrigation water quality can affect food safety and health, and has been identified as a possible source of microbiological contaminants in produce linked to disease outbreaks. Although the impact of irrigation water quality on agriculture has been a longstanding topic of study, limited evidence on the impact of the use of polluted water in the food supply system and implications for food security and human health.

Factors impacting water quality

Agriculture has been identified as one of the leading sectors affecting water quality, with pollution from agriculture and rural land affecting 40% of water bodies. Farming contributes to poor water quality through excess nutrients such as phosphorus and nitrogen (see Indicator 2.2.6 Soil health for further details). It also contributes through other chemicals including veterinary medicines, pesticides and ‘emerging chemicals’, faecal bacteria and pathogens (predominantly from livestock), soil sediment (from both arable and livestock farming), and micro-plastics (present in sewage sludge, compost and other organic manures). Addressing pollution and improving water quality is a policy objective. See Indicator 2.2.9 Sustainable farming for further details.

Climate impacts

Climate change may bring new weather patterns such as extreme droughts that cause unpredictable issues for water sources that have previously been reliable. Wetter winters and more frequent, heavier storms are leading to more flooding and more pollutants being washed off fields and urban areas. Projections show rivers could have 50 to 80% less water in summertime by 2050 from drier summers. Drought could harm ecology and reduce the natural resilience of our rivers, wetlands and aquifers. This has the potential to damage water supply infrastructure and lead to interruptions in supply (Environment Agency, 2020).

2.2.8 Greenhouse gas emissions

Rationale

Agriculture is a significant source of the UK’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, comprising of nitrous oxide, methane, carbon dioxide. Agriculture is also responsible for a large proportion of the UK’s ammonia emissions, which impact on air quality and subsequently human and animal health (AUK). GHG reductions are essential in the fight to mitigate climate change. Reducing agriculture’s contribution to GHG emissions is a key part in ensuring the long-term sustainability of UK farming. The UK is already experiencing extreme weather events associated with climate change that are posing a threat to food production both domestically and abroad. This is explored further in Indicator 2.1.2 Arable products (grain, oilseed and potatoes), Indicator 2.1.3 Livestock and poultry products (meat, eggs and dairy), and Indicator 2.1.4 Fruits and vegetables.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.8a: Territorial greenhouse gas emissions by selected source category, UK 2002 to 2022

Source: UK territorial greenhouse gas emissions national statistics (DESNZ/DBEIS)

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The indicator shown above relates to a subset of 6 sectors, rather than GHG emissions from all sectors. Between 2020 and 2022 overall GHG emissions fell by 0.5% to 406.2 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). Emissions from agriculture and net removals by the forestry sector have fluctuated but show little overall change between 2002 and 2022. Between 2020 and 2022 GHG emissions from agriculture fell by 0.6%, while emissions from land use and forestry decreased by 0.3% or 0.002 MtCO₂e. In comparison, emissions from waste fell by 3.3% over the same period. This assessment does not consider whether any improvement is on a sufficient scale for meeting targets.

In 2022 agriculture accounted for around 12% of total GHG emissions in the UK, this is an increase from approximately 10% in 2020. In 2022 domestic transport was responsible for 28% (113.2 MtCO₂e) of overall GHG emissions, while buildings and product uses were responsible for 20% (82.8 MtCO₂e) emissions. Industry (57.3 MtCO₂e) and electricity supply (54.9 MtCO₂e) were each responsible for 14% of overall GHG emissions in 2022.

Supporting evidence

Agriculture is a major source of nitrous oxide, methane and ammonia in the UK. In 2022 it accounted for 70% of nitrous oxide emissions, 49% of methane emissions and 87% of ammonia emissions. In contrast, agriculture only accounted for <2% of carbon dioxide emissions in 2022. While total amounts of nitrous oxide, methane and carbon dioxide have reduced since 1990, this is mainly due to reductions in non-agricultural sources. Therefore, while agriculture has seen reductions in the emissions of nitrous oxide and methane, it now accounts for a larger proportion of total emissions.

Figure 2.2.8b: Territorial emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O), UK 2002 to 2022

Source: Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics: 1990 to 2022 (DESNZ)

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The majority of agricultural nitrous oxide emissions are sourced from soils, particularly as a result of nitrogen fertiliser application, manure (both applied and excreted on pasture), leaching and run-off. In 2022, nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture are estimated to have fallen by 15% since 2002 and by 23% since 1990. This is consistent with trends in fertiliser usage. Since 2020, nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture fell by 3.1% from 13MtCO₂e to 12.6MtCO₂e in 2022.

Figure 2.2.8c: Territorial emissions of methane (CH₄), UK 2002 to 2022

Source: Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics: 1990 to 2022 (DESNZ)

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The majority of agricultural methane emissions come from enteric ruminant digestion in livestock, with manure management practices accounting for the remainder. Methane emissions from agriculture have fallen by 5.7% since 2002. Over the long term these emissions have fallen by 15% since 1990, mainly as a result of decreasing livestock numbers, particularly in cattle.

Agriculture’s emissions of carbon dioxide are largely caused by farm vehicles and machinery and can also result from poor soil management. Agricultural emissions of carbon dioxide have remained low since 1990 and accounted for less than 2% of total emissions in 2022. While the proportion of carbon dioxide emissions related to agriculture are low, levels increased in 2004, where they have since fluctuated but remained at similar levels.

In 2022, agriculture accounted for 87% of the UK’s ammonia emissions. The main sources of ammonia emissions in the UK are agricultural soils and livestock, in particular cattle. In 2022, ammonia emissions from agriculture are estimated to have fallen by 18% since 1990 due to long-term reductions in cattle numbers and more efficient fertiliser use. Emissions have generally fluctuated since 2010, in part driven by annual variations in weather conditions affecting crop planting and fertiliser use, as well as energy prices affecting the use of fertilisers.

Sustainable farming

Sustainable farming practices that protect soil health are an import part of reducing agricultural GHG emissions. Soil degradation is associated with increased carbon emission as it is estimated that UK soils currently hold around 9.8 billion tonnes of carbon. See Indicator 2.2.9 Sustainable farming for examples of agri-environmental schemes which help to protect soil health. The process of peat degradation places England’s lowland peat soils among the largest sources of GHG emissions in the land use sector. This accounts for over 2% of England’s overall GHG emissions and approximately 88% of all emissions from peat in England. Taking action to protect peat soils, including raising water levels where appropriate, will help achieve legally-binding net zero targets, while preserving some of the most productive agricultural land.

2.2.9 Sustainable farming

Rationale

Intensive farming has dominated since the mid-20^th century. Its effects on the natural world are becoming apparent through its impact on soil degradation, water quality, greenhouse gases, and biodiversity, and therefore food security itself. Sustainable farming practices can reduce or reverse these harms, encourage biodiversity, and capture carbon, all while producing food that contributes to healthy, sustainable diets and is essential to maintaining domestic production levels and quality in the long term.

There is no single measure of sustainable farming practices. Many producers choose to use sustainable farming techniques within one or more areas of their holding, and this is not compiled in a single national statistic. Data on land entered in agri-environment schemes (AES) across the UK and land entered in the organic farming programme is used as a proxy representation for the uptake of sustainable farming techniques. For both, upward or downward trends do not necessarily correlate with more or less sustainable farming in the UK, but they do allow the UKFSR to track trends across 2 significant areas that shape the sustainable farming landscape.

Headline evidence

Figure 2.2.9a: Area under agri-environment schemes by country, 2021 to 2023

Source: Take-up of agri-environment schemes, (Defra)

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Note:

1. These numbers are based on the total area per land parcel for each option. Options may not cover the total area of the land parcel. However, the whole parcel is not always under management, so this method can inflate the area under management. For example, if a parcel just has a hedgerow option on it, the whole parcel area is still reported, despite the hedgerow being the only area under management.

2. Rotational options are excluded for Environmental Stewardship as the information on these options is not stored electronically. This means that the area under Environmental Stewardship could be higher.

3. For England (pre-2023), Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, the total area covered by AES is presented as a sum of the individual scheme areas. This may include a small amount of double counting as different schemes can cover the same land areas. From 2023 onwards the English total is based on a new methodology that removes any overlap, so the total area for England will be smaller than the sum of the individual scheme areas.

For the UK overall, the area in AES increased from 4,922 thousand hectares in 2021 to 5,872 thousand hectares in 2023. To put this into context, this is around one-quarter of total land area in the UK and around one-third of total utilised agricultural area (UAA). There was only a small increase between 2021 and 2022 but a much larger increase of 820 thousand hectares between 2022 and 2023. Note that not all AES is on UAA (see Indicator 2.2.4 Land use for further detail).

In England in particular the amount of land in AES has been increasing since 2021 due to the increased uptake of Countryside Stewardship (CS) and the launch of the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI). The range of options that can comprise a CS agreement, for example, can be seen here. While this can be considered a positive trend it should be noted that it was from a low baseline position. Between 2013 and 2018 there was a decline in the area of land in AES from 6,783 thousand hectares to 2,781 thousand hectares. This was due to the closure of Environmental Stewardship (ES) in December 2014.

In January 2024 the Office for Environmental Protection (OEP) published analysis of the uptake of ‘nature friendly farming’ which noted the increased uptake in 2022 to 2023, but assessed that rollout of the schemes needed to be accelerated if the UK is to achieve government targets in the Environmental Improvement Plan.

Supporting evidence

Agri- environmental schemes

Further research is needed to understand the different effects of the schemes on food production. The options which comprise a specific agreement vary. Some schemes will have a direct impact through direct measures supporting sustainable food production such as cover crops. Improving soil health will build resilience to flooding and droughts, therefore helping to protect domestic food production during periods of extreme weather. Other schemes will have an indirect impact through improving the resilience of nature. AES are helping farmers and land managers to deliver for the environment as well as produce food, by allowing farmers to generate income on less productive areas. This includes the creation of wildflower meadows, which help support species and pollinators. In some cases, there will be trade-offs between environmental use of land and using land for production. Land type will be a factor in this decision.

Agricultural policy is devolved across the four UK nations. Following 31 December 2020, the UK government has set its own agricultural support schemes.

England

Environmental Land Management schemes (ELMs) have a large-scale ongoing monitoring programme which collects both field samples and earth observation data, both pre- and post-scheme launch, to capture environmental change over time. Environmental outcomes can take considerable time to show change, so impact models are used to assess outcomes in the short term. The most recent ELMS monitoring assessment is available. Alongside the launch of the Sustainable Farming Incentive and growth in Countryside Stewardship, additional actions have launched in 2024 as part of the expanded SFI offer that will contribute to key outcomes.

Wales

The Welsh Government has now set out Sustainable Land Management Objectives in legislation, which all future agricultural support will need to contribute to. The Sustainable Farming Scheme, due to be launched in 2026, will reward farmers for carrying out actions that contribute to sustainable food production. This will be the Welsh Government’s main mechanism for supporting farmers financially, so there will no longer be the distinction between a main subsidy and agri-environmental support as there has been previously.

Between 2013 and 2016, the Welsh Government ran the Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP). This evaluated the environmental effects of the Glastir agri-environment scheme at a national scale, as well as monitored the wider countryside of Wales in the longer term. This work has been continued through the Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP). A key strand of ERAMMP is to undertake a National Field Survey in Wales to provide information for the evaluation of Glastir and ongoing Sustainable Land Management. Reports and articles produced through the ERAMMP are available.

Scotland

The Agri-Environment Climate Scheme (AECS) is the Scottish Government’s single largest funding mechanism for environmental and sustainable land management. It supports actions spanning habitat creation and restoration and measures to improve water quality and water resource management.

AECS supports the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government 2021 to 2022 commitment to seek to double the amount of land used for organic farming by 2026 through the funding of conversion to and maintenance of organic land. This is in recognition of how organic farming practices seek to work with natural processes, using methods that are designed to achieve a sustainable production system with limited use of external inputs.

While AECS does not have independent targets or specific Key Performance Indicators, the scheme supports existing programmes and frameworks such as:

• Support for the appropriate management of national and international sites designated for nature (SSSI and European nature sites)

• the Climate Change Plan

• Scotland’s Biodiversity Framework 2022 to 2045, including strategy and supporting delivery plan

In 2021 NatureScot, the Scottish Government’s nature agency, commissioned the Evaluation of the biodiversity outcomes of the 2014 to 2020 report. This was supported by the accompanying Agri-Environment Climate Scheme heat maps report 2015 to 2018 which illustrates the geographic distribution of scheme uptake.

Northern Ireland

Since 2018, Environmental Farming Scheme (EFS) participants have managed over 58,000 hectares of priority habitat, planted or enhanced 1000 kilometres of hedgerows, protected 2,700 kilometres of waterway and planted half a million trees. The Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) is developing a Farming with Nature (FwN) Package that will replace EFS in due course.

The FwN Package aims to assist farm businesses and land managers across all land types to make substantial contributions to environmental improvements and sustainability. It will focus initially on reversing the trends in nature decline through maintaining, restoring, and creating habitats that are important for species diversity and improving connectivity between habitat areas. Environmental payments will, as far as possible, seek to recognise and reward the public goods provided by farm businesses and land managers who improve environmental performance through the delivery of identified outcomes. This approach aims to encourage the environment to be seen as another on-farm enterprise and has the potential to become a profit centre within an overall sustainable farming model. It will also assist farm businesses and land managers to make an economic return on the environmental assets that they create and manage appropriately.

A new programme of Farm Support and Development, designed in consultation with the Northern Ireland agricultural industry and other key stakeholders, is being developed. It will be introduced on a phased basis over the coming years. The schemes and measures to be introduced will provide levers to contribute to statutory obligations under the Climate Change Act (NI) 2022, with a firm focus on just transition. The vision for Farm Support and Development in Northern Ireland is defined around 4 outcomes for the agricultural industry as one that is productive and profitable, sustainable, resilient and integrated.

Organic Farming

Organic farming is another proxy for sustainable farming practices. Other systems such as no- and low-till farming, agroecology, and agroforestry also contribute towards balancing sustainability and food production. Organic farming practices do not allow the application of chemical fertilisers or pesticides, or the routine feeding of antibiotics to animals, and they also have high standards for animal welfare. Consequently, productivity tends to be lower than in conventional systems. One of the core principles of organic farming is that by good land management, such as crop rotation, environmental harms can be reduced and soil health improved, offering greater sustainability in the long term.

Figure 2.2.9b: UK organic farming land area, 2003 to 2023

Source: Organic farming statistics 2023 (Defra)

Download the data for this chart (ODS, 79.7 KB)

In 2023, organically farmed land represented 2.9% of total UK farmed area, and the total area of fully converted and in-conversion farmland was 498,000 hectares. The total area of UK organic farmland peaked in 2008 and then decreased to a low in 2018. The overall reduction in area was 36% (270,000 hectares) over that period. This was caused by a combination of factors. The economic recession of 2008 to 2009 impacted demand for organic produce, particularly from the large multiple retailers who cut back on their ‘premium’ lines including organic. During this period farmers were also experiencing uncertainty over the future of the organic support schemes under the EU Common Agricultural Policy (EU CAP). Scotland accounted for approximately 50% of total reduction in UK organic land. Between 2020 and 2023 the total organic area in the UK has remained largely static at around 500,000 hectares. Long term lack of growth also reflects ongoing economic uncertainty and pressures on farm gate prices, as well as a lack of confidence among farmers and growers to invest in organic enterprises.

About the UK Food Security Report

The UK Food Security Report (UKFSR) sets out an analysis of statistical data relating to food security in the UK. It fulfils a duty under Part 2, Chapter 1 (Section 19) of the Agriculture Act 2020 to prepare and lay before Parliament at least once every three years “a report containing an analysis on statistical data relating to food security in the United Kingdom”.

The UKFSR examines past, current, and future trends relevant to food security to present a full and impartial analysis of UK food security. It draws on a broad range of published data from official, administrative, academic, intergovernmental and wider sources.

The UKFSR is intended as an independent evidence base to inform users rather than a policy or strategy. In practice this means that it provides government, Parliament, food chain stakeholders and the wider public with the data and analysis needed to monitor UK food security and develop effective responses to issues.

Contact and feedback

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What we will do with this data

Production team: Michael Archer, Lewis Bird, Jess Booth, Jane Brown, Rebecca Clutterbuck, Grant Davies, Simon Dixon, Nikita Driver, Tom George, Gayle Griffiths, Evangeline Hopper, Helen Jamieson, Ronald Kasoka, Matt Keating, Sarath Kizhakkoott, Gurjeevan Landa, Rachel Latham, David Lee, James LePage, Ian Lonsdale, Claire Manley (FSA), Eszter Palotai, Maria Prokopiou, Erica Pufall (FSA), Alexis Rampa, Lewis Ratcliffe, Leigh Riley, Karen Robertson (FSS), Danny Roff, William Ryle-Hodges, Daniel Scott, Chris Silwood, Swati Singh (FSA), Carine Valarche, Maisie Wilson, Isabella Worth

Acknowledgements

We are extremely grateful to the following for their expert contributions and guidance throughout the synthesis of this Report, helping to ensure it delivers a thorough analysis of a robust evidence base:

• Professor Angelina Sanderson Bellamy, University of the West of England Bristol

• Professor Tim Benton, Chatham House

• Dr Tom D. Breeze, University of Reading

• Dr Jonathan Brooks, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, University of Exeter Business School

• Professor Katrina Campbell, Institute for Global Food Security, School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s University Belfast

• Professor Bob Doherty (Dean and Principal Investigator of FixOurFood), School for Business and Society, University of York

• Selvarani Elahi MBE, UK Deputy Government Chemist, LGC

• Dr Pete Falloon, Met Office/University of Bristol

• Professor Lynn Frewer, Centre for Rural Economy, Newcastle University

• Dr Kenisha Garnett, Cranfield University

• Professor Emeritus Peter J. Gregory, School of Agriculture, Policy & Development, University of Reading

• Dr Saher Hasnain, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

• Alan Hayes, Strategic Advisor, Future Strategy

• Dr John Ingram, Food Systems Transformation Programme, University of Oxford

• Professor Peter Jackson, Institute for Sustainable Food, University of Sheffield

• Professor Alexandra Johnstone, The Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen

• Dr Hannah Lambie-Mumford, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Sheffield

• Dr Marta Lonnie, The Rowett Institute, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences & Nutrition, University of Aberdeen

• Dr Rachel Loopstra, Department of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool

• Dr Katie McDermott, University of Leeds

• Dr Ian Noble, Chair of UK Food Sector Advisory Group – Innovate UK

• Dr Kelly Parsons, MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge

• Dr Maddy Power (Assistant Professor), Wellcome Trust Research Fellow, Department of Health Sciences, University of York

• Dr Michelle Thomas, University of Reading

• Professor Carol Wagstaff, University of Reading

Continue to Theme 3: Food Supply Chain Resilience

Return to Theme 1: Global Food Availability

Annexes

Glossary and Acronyms

Return to Contents Page

Return to the United Kingdom Food Security 2024 home page to download the data for charts