Collection

Scientific evidence supporting the government response to coronavirus (COVID-19)

Evidence considered by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

From:
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
Published
26 June 2020
Last updated
29 April 2022 — See all updates

The national and global response to the spread of COVID-19 continues to develop quickly and our knowledge of the virus is growing. These statements and accompanying evidence demonstrate how our understanding of COVID-19 has evolved as new data has emerged.

The evidence was often compiled very rapidly during a fast-moving response and should be viewed in this context. The papers presented here are the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing, and their conclusions were formed on this basis. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in these papers may have been superseded at a later date.

This page will be updated on a regular basis with the latest available evidence provided to SAGE.

Accessible documents

We are adding HTML versions of SAGE papers retrospectively to improve the accessibility of our GOV.UK pages. You may get a notification of this change. To note this is not a change to the paper itself.

Search all SAGE papers

Find a specific report.

Introduction to the evidence

Meeting minutes and supporting papers

SPI-B background papers

These papers were produced by SPI-B to provide background information supporting the provision of advice to SAGE.

Modelling inputs

Emerging evidence about COVID-19


Emergence of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19); A protocol for extending surveillance used by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) and Public Health England (PHE)

Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts

Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices

A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing

The efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

Reports from Imperial College London


Epidemic size estimation in Wuhan City

Epidemic size estimation in Wuhan City - update

Transmissibility of COVID-19

Severity of COVID-19

Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2

Relative sensitivity of international surveillance

Infection prevalence estimated from repatriation flights

Symptom progression of COVID-19

The models


BBC dataset

POLYMOD

Specific pieces of modelling on interventions provided to SAGE


Updates to this page

Published 26 June 2020
Last updated 29 April 2022 + show all updates

  1. Updated attendance lists for SAGE 16 and SAGE 52. Added HTML for 3 more papers.

  2. We've added 38 papers under February to December 2020, and 6 new papers under January, March and June 2021. We've also published 6 medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  3. We've added 10 new papers to February 2022 and added an HTML version of one paper. We've also corrected the author attribution of a paper from April 2020.

  4. Added link to February 2022 SAGE document collection.

  5. We've added a new paper under July 2021 and updated the SAGE participants list.

  6. We've added 29 new papers.

  7. We've published minutes for SAGE 103 and added 5 new papers under January 2022.

  8. We've published minutes for SAGE 102 and added 9 new papers under January 2022. We've also added 52 papers which were already published elsewhere and which were available to SAGE participants but not tabled or discussed.

  9. We've added 2 new papers under December 2021.

  10. We've published minutes for SAGE 98 and added 2 new papers under SAGE 98 in December 2021. We've also published medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  11. We've published minutes for SAGE 97 and added 2 new papers under November 2021. We've also published medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  12. We've added SPI-M-O medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  13. We've added SPI-M-O medium-term projections and an SPI-M-O consensus statement that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  14. We've added SPI-M-O medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  15. Added link to 'Introduction to epidemiological modelling' to Introduction to Evidence.

  16. We've added 4 papers to October 2021 and published medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  17. We've published minutes for SAGE 96 and added 22 new papers under October.

  18. We've added SPI-M-O medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  19. We've updated the SPI-M-O medium-term projections from 15 September and added new projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  20. Added link to September 2021 SAGE document collection.

  21. We've added 1 paper under June 2020 and published 2 SPI-M-O medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  22. We've added 39 new papers under April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November and December 2020, and January and February 2021. We've also published 2 SPI-M-O consensus statements that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  23. We've added 20 new papers under May, July, August, September and November 2020, and January, March, April and July 2021. We've also published medium-term projection from SPI-M-O that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  24. We've added 5 new papers under June and July and published 2 medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held. We've also released 2 regular PHE updates which were available to SAGE, but were not discussed in the meetings.

  25. We've published minutes for SAGE 94 and added 9 papers under March, April, May, June and July.

  26. We've added 2 new papers under June and July. We've also published a consensus statement and medium-term projection from SPI-M-O that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  27. We've released 8 new papers under February, May, June and July.

  28. We've added 2 consensus statements and 2 medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  29. We've published minutes for SAGE 72 and SAGE 87 and added 8 new papers under November, December, February and April.

  30. We've added 2 new papers under February and June and published an SPI-M-O consensus statement that was considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  31. We've added 1 new paper under May and 3 under June.

  32. We've published minutes for SAGE 90, 91 and 92 and added 2 new papers under May and 12 under June. We've also published an SPI-M-O consensus statement that was considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  33. We have added 7 papers under May and 1 under June.

  34. We've added 1 new paper under February and published medium-term projections that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  35. We have added 2 new papers under May and 1 under March.

  36. We have added 6 new papers under May.

  37. We have published minutes for SAGE 89 and added 3 new papers under May.

  38. We've added 1 new paper under May. We've also published 2 papers that were considered during a week in which no SAGE was held.

  39. We have published minutes for SAGE 88 and added 4 new papers under May.

  40. We have added 6 new papers under March and April.

  41. We have added 9 new papers under March and April.

  42. We have published minutes for SAGE 86 and added 16 new papers under January, March and April.

  43. We have published minutes for SAGE 84, updated the minutes for SAGE 85 and added 10 new papers for March 2021.

  44. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 83 and added 8 new papers under February and March 2021.

  45. We have added 3 new papers under January and March 2021.

  46. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 82 and added 5 new papers under February 2021.

  47. We have added 7 new papers under July 2020, November 2020 and February 2021.

  48. We have added 4 new papers under February 2021.

  49. We have published minutes for SAGE meetings 78, 79, 80 and 81, and added 16 new papers under January 2021 and February 2021.

  50. We have added 9 new papers under February 2021.

  51. We have added 12 new papers under January 2021 and 1 under February 2021.

  52. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 76 and added 9 new papers under May 2020, December 2020 and January 2021.

  53. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 75, added 13 new papers under December 2020 and January 2021 and a supporting paper under SPI-B background papers.

  54. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 73 and added 12 new papers under December 2020 and January 2021.

  55. We have added 12 new papers under May, October, November and December.

  56. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 74 and added 2 new papers under December.

  57. We have published minutes for SAGE meetings 68, 70 and 71 and added 13 new papers under October, November and December.

  58. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 49 and added 7 new papers under April and November.

  59. We have added 4 new papers under November.

  60. We have published minutes for SAGE meetings 64, 66 and 69 and added 15 new papers under October and November.

  61. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 67 and added 2 new papers under November.

  62. We have added 3 new papers under November.

  63. We have published minutes for SAGE meetings 62, 63 and 65 and added 8 new papers under October and November.

  64. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 56 and added 9 new papers under September and October.

  65. We have added 12 new papers under the May, June, July, August, September and October SAGE meetings.

  66. We have added 7 new papers under September.

  67. We have added 2 new papers under September.

  68. We have published minutes for SAGE meetings 47, 48, 50 & 51 and added 5 new papers under August and September.

  69. We have published minutes for SAGE meetings 52, 53, 54 & 55 and added 4 new papers under April, August and September. We have also added an update to a July paper on excess deaths and morbidity.

  70. We have added 10 new papers and 24 short-term forecast reports.

  71. We have added 5 new papers under the July, August and September SAGE meetings.

  72. We have added 2 new papers under the August SAGE meetings.

  73. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 42 and added 5 new papers under June, July and August. We have also reissued the SPI-M-O consensus statement for 22 July 2020.

  74. We have added 6 new papers under the July SAGE meetings.

  75. We have published minutes for SAGE meeting 46 under July.

  76. We have published minutes for SAGE meetings 43, 44 and 45 and added 16 papers under March, May and July.

  77. We have added 7 new papers under the July SAGE meetings.

  78. We have added 10 new papers under the June and July SAGE meetings.

  79. First published.

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