SPI-M-O: COVID-19 reasonable worst-case planning scenario, 21 May 2020
Paper prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
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SPI-M-O paper on a reasonable worst-case planning scenario (RWCS), as agreed by SAGE. This was considered at SAGE 38 on 21 May 2020.
The paper is an assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.
This paper should be read alongside the paper, Estimating additional deaths to expand the RWCS, released under SAGE 40, and the paper SPI-M-O: Planning and reasonable worst-case scenarios, also released under SAGE 38.
Please note that this paper was amended shortly after SAGE 38, in order to reflect actions agreed within the meeting. Where there are conflicting figures with SPI-M-O: Planning and reasonable worst-case scenarios, those from this paper should take precedence.
These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time. Reasonable worst-case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios.
SAGE provides scientific advice to government. It does not make decisions on what scenario government should be planning for. Please note that this RWCS was not used for planning across government by the Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.