Timing & local triggering of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demands, 5 March 2020
Paper prepared by Imperial College on timing & local triggering of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Documents
Details
Paper prepared by Imperial College in response to a commission to look at timing & triggering of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demands. It was considered at SAGE 13 on 5 March 2020. This is 1 of 3 SPI-M papers tabled to SAGE 13 on timing of interventions.
Please note that this paper considered a “reasonable worst case” scenario. These results should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather indicative outputs to inform planning at the time. Reasonable worst case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios). These modelling outputs are subject to uncertainty given the evidence available at the time, and dependent on the assumptions made.
It should be viewed in context: the paper was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.