Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Expert narratives for potential autumn and winter events, 29 July 2020

Expert narratives for potential autumn and winter events paper prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 5 February 2021

Documents

SPI-M-O Expert narratives for potential autumn and winter events, 29 July 2020

PDF, 113 KB, 5 pages

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Details

Paper from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) on potential autumn and winter events. It was considered at SAGE 49 on 30 July 2020. The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

This paper discusses expert narratives for potential autumn and winter events, in the context of the reasonable worst-case planning scenario released under SAGE 49. It should be read alongside the paper reasonable worst-case planning scenario, 30 July 2020.

This paper should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather a narrative on possible scenarios to inform planning.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 5 February 2021