SPI-M-O: Reasonable worst-case planning scenario, 30 July 2020
Paper prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).
Documents
Details
Paper on a reasonable worst-case planning scenario, as agreed by SAGE. It was considered at SAGE 49 on 30 July 2020.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper should be read alongside the paper estimating additional deaths to expand the RWCS, released under SAGE 50. It should also considered in the context of the papers SPI-M-O: Update on planning and reasonable worst-case scenarios and SPI-M-O Expert narratives for potential autumn and winter events statements, as released under SAGE 49.
These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time. Reasonable worst-case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios.
SAGE provides scientific advice to government. It does not make decisions on what scenario government should be planning for. The Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat advised that Her Majesty’s Government (HMG) should plan based on the reasonable worst-case scenario presented.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.