SPI-M-O: Update on planning and reasonable worst-case scenarios, 29 July 2020
Paper prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).
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Paper from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) on planning and reasonable worst-case scenarios (RWCS). It was considered at SAGE 49 on 30 July 2020.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper discusses the modelling approaches considered for the reasonable worst-case planning scenario, 30 July 2020, released under SAGE 49 and should be read in that context.
It should also be read alongside SPI-M-O Expert narratives for potential Autumn and Winter Events, also released under SAGE 49.
These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time. Reasonable worst-case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios.
SAGE provides scientific advice to government. It does not make decisions on what scenario government should be planning for. The Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies Secretariat advised that HMG should plan based on the RWCS presented in the paper Reasonable worst-case planning scenario, 30 July 2020.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.